World Records Hit By Climate Change

The Plateau of Peak Performance: Are Human Limits in Sight?

A mathematical framework provides clarity on why surpassing global sporting benchmarks is becoming an increasingly arduous task. In certain athletic disciplines, fresh world records are now exceptionally scarce. Conversely, other fields see previous bests fall with regularity, a dynamic recently showcased by the astounding pole-vaulting feats of Armand Duplantis. By analysing record-setting trends in different areas, such as climate science, we can gain a deeper understanding of this widening gap.

The Duplantis Effect

The Athletics World Championships in Tokyo provided the stage for a truly remarkable display of athletic prowess. Fueled by the energy of the cheering spectators and a powerful musical score, Armand "Mondo" Duplantis charged along the track, his pole held steady. The Swedish athlete then launched himself skyward, effortlessly clearing the bar. This single vault cemented his authority in what is considered a highly demanding athletic event, establishing a fresh global benchmark. His incredible 6.3m clearance not only secured his third straight world title but also amazingly represented the 14th occasion he had set a new world best, redefining the boundaries of achievement.

A Contrast in Records

This kind of rapid succession of broken global bests is a recurring pattern in sports. Progress in nutrition, methodology, or gear frequently triggers a quick series of new world-beating performances. This holds particularly true for highly specialised events like cycling and the pole vault, where small refinements can lead to substantial gains. Lately, track disciplines have also witnessed a wave of new records, largely driven by innovations in technology.

However, a starkly different situation exists in the men's long jump. That world record has stood almost undisturbed since 1968. The sole interruption was Mike Powell's 1991 achievement of 8.95m at the World Championships, which also took place in Tokyo. This longevity raises the question of whether the sport has arrived at a performance ceiling—a point where additional improvement is impossible. In such a scenario, an athlete's results might hinge on variables like wind speed or the previous evening's rest.

Defining Stable Systems

These circumstances are labeled 'stationary', indicating the general average in performance does not change over time. Within such a stable framework, it becomes possible to predict the likely frequency of new benchmarks that arise from chance variations. To find a real-world model of this stability, one can examine climate records from the era before industrialisation.

A Rainfall Analogy

Consider tracking the yearly precipitation levels across multiple cities. We can presume the annual totals in each location are unrelated and that no wider climatic trends are at play. In this model, the amount of rain during year one sets the initial benchmark. Assuming year two's precipitation is also unrelated, then statistically, half the locations will get more rain, while the other half will not. Thus, the mean count of records following two years of observation is 1.5.

For a new benchmark to be established in the third year, rainfall must top the two preceding years. This outcome happens, on average, in one out of every three locations. This brings the total anticipated records to the sum of 1 + 1/2 + 1/3. This progression continues. After a full century, the anticipated number of records per city becomes the total of one, plus one-half, one-third, one-quarter, and so on, up to one-hundredth.

The Harmonic Series Explained

This mathematical concept is called the Harmonic series, a term linked to its relationship with musical harmony. It is used in fields ranging from engineering stress analysis and wartime supply management to creating a reliable shuffle for playing cards and figuring out how many packets of stickers are needed to complete a collection book. Although the added fractions become progressively tinier, the total of this series never reaches a final number. Instead, it grows forever. Mathematicians say it diverges. This reflects our common sense understanding of record-breaking: given enough time, new benchmarks will appear even in stable conditions.

The Slowdown of Progress

The expansion of this mathematical series, however, slows considerably over extended periods. This leads to an anticipation that record-setting events will become less common. One might see two new benchmarks in the initial four years, but the next could take about seven more. Then, another two decades could pass before the subsequent one. Over a hundred years, the total might be five, and over a millennium, just seven. So, while new records are always possible in a stable environment, they happen less and less often.

Climate Change: A System in Flux

By reversing this principle, we can analyse data about record frequency to see if a system is indeed stable. Climate information gathered over many years shows a worrying trend: temperature benchmarks are being surpassed frequently. This points to a planet that is heating up fast and has left a state of stability. This shift is because of human impact, like releasing heat-trapping gases. New heat records are falling at a rate that is not slowing as predicted; it has even accelerated over the past 15 years. This is different from what one would observe in a consistent climate.

The Record-Breaking Ratio

Scientists utilise a specific measurement to assess the scale of the changing climate, which they call the record ratio. It compares the actual number of records to the number one would expect. Over the last decade and a half, the cold-event ratio has dipped under 0.5, which suggests low-temperature benchmarks happen with half the anticipated frequency. On the other hand, the high-temperature ratio exceeded four by 2020. This showed that heat records were being set at four times the expected rate for a stable climate. In 2024, which was the warmest year ever documented, this ratio jumped to an incredible 6.2, according to information from the World Meteorological Organization.

Image Credit -  by Darren Wilkinson from Chester-le-Street, England, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Implications for the Sporting World

In the athletic arena, insufficient information exists to determine if specific athletic disciplines have attained this level of stability. Some analyses of top sporting achievements across various track and field events propose that we are approaching our physical limits, meaning records should now occur less often. Others contend that human potential is still growing and will continue to advance. The sheer quantity of records Duplantis has broken recently suggests the highly specialised pole vault discipline has not yet plateaued. Meanwhile, the persistence of old benchmarks in the long jump points to a sport that might have hit its peak.

Interpreting the Data with Care

Caution is necessary before concluding too much from a dry spell of record-setting in any one discipline. For example, the global best for the women's long jump is older than the men's equivalent; Soviet athlete Galina Chistyakova's 1988 leap of 7.52m has not been seriously challenged by modern attempts. Swimming also experienced a slowdown in record-breaking after 2010, when officials outlawed advanced polyurethane swimsuits. A glut of records were established in 2008 and 2009 while these suits were legal, and a number of them remain unbroken.

Swimming's Record Resurgence

A recent upturn in swimming records indicates that better training methods and optimised pool conditions could foster further progress for athletes. This shows that while technological aids can create a temporary surge in new bests, the fundamental capacity for human betterment remains a crucial element. The sport is currently undergoing a renaissance of top-tier performances, propelled by the commitment and creativity of a fresh cohort of swimmers.

The Impact of Outliers

Sometimes, the explanation is simply a uniquely talented person redefining their discipline's boundaries. The American swimmer Katie Ledecky has set 16 world-beating times in her career, including a new 800m freestyle best earlier this year. With 14 global records to his name, Duplantis is another competitor establishing a new benchmark for achievement. Such athletes appear to defy statistical predictions, serving as a reminder of humanity's capacity for greatness. Their successes are a tribute to their extraordinary abilities, firm commitment, and a relentless drive for perfection.

The Shadow of a Warming Planet

Following an oppressively hot and humid World Championships in Tokyo in 2025, Seb Coe, the president of World Athletics, conceded that our planet's changing climate might compel the sport to reconsider its practice of staging summer competitions. It is telling that the Duplantis record was the only one set in Tokyo. With three-quarters of competitors reporting that the shifting climate and rising heat are adversely affecting their physical condition and competitive results, we may see that global warming itself will change the frequency with which new athletic benchmarks are achieved. This serves as a potent reminder that the future of sport is deeply connected to planetary health.

A Demand for Adaptation

The rising number of extreme weather occurrences presents a serious danger to the welfare of athletes and the fairness of competitions. World Athletics and similar sports organisations are now confronted with the task of adjusting their schedules and competition styles to lessen these dangers. This could mean holding endurance competitions in cooler seasons or relocating events to places with more suitable weather. The world of sports must adopt a forward-thinking strategy to tackle the consequences of a warming planet to protect its participants and ensure the continuing viability of the sports we cherish.

Image Credit - by Isiwal/Wikimedia Commons/CC BY-SA 4.0, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

The Athletes' Perspective

Recent studies from World Athletics indicate an escalating worry among premier athletes regarding the effects of environmental shifts on their disciplines. The 2023 poll showed that 75% of athletes believed the changing climate was directly harming their health and abilities. This marks a considerable rise from the year before, underscoring the pressing nature of the problem. Competitors are at the forefront of the climate crisis, directly feeling its consequences in training and contests. Their concerns are a strong appeal for the entire sporting world to confront this worldwide issue.

A Collective Duty

The obligation to tackle the issue of our planet's warming in relation to athletics doesn't rest only with the governing bodies. Competitors, coaches, sponsors, and supporters all have parts to play. Athletes can leverage their public profiles to build consciousness and push for action. Coaches can modify training routines to factor in new environmental realities. Sponsors are able to back sustainable initiatives and fund eco-friendly innovations. Fans can make deliberate decisions to lessen their own environmental impact when they go to sporting events. Through collaborative effort, a more sustainable path for both sport and the planet can be forged.

Appreciating Moments of Glory

For the time being, any new global benchmark that is achieved should be celebrated. The competitors responsible for these feats have managed something exceptional against difficult odds. Every fresh record stands as a tribute to human capability, a testament to the strength of commitment, and a beacon of motivation for future generations. As the chances for victory narrow and the hurdles get higher, these instances of success become even more valuable. They show us that even when facing hardship, the human spirit can reach incredible new heights.