Renewable Energy Overtakes Coal

Dawn of a New Era: Renewables Eclipse Coal in Global Power Generation

A historic shift in the planet's energy landscape has occurred. For the first time, renewable sources have produced more electricity than coal, marking a pivotal moment in the transition to clean power. This crucial turning point, identified in recent figures from Ember, a worldwide energy analysis group, signals the start of a profound transformation in how the world is powered. The milestone was achieved during the initial half of the present year, driven by a tremendous expansion of wind and solar infrastructure. This surge not only met the planet's increasing need for power but also began to displace fossil fuels, forcing a slight decrease in the use of gas and coal.

While this global headline paints a picture of progress, Ember’s analysis reveals a more complex reality. The push towards clean power is being led predominantly by developing nations, with China at the forefront. In stark contrast, many of the globe's wealthier economies, including the United States and the European Union, have paradoxically increased their dependency on heat-trapping carbon fuels. This growing divide highlights the uneven and often challenging path towards a truly sustainable worldwide energy system, a trend that separate reports from the IEA, an international energy body, suggest may become even more pronounced in the coming years.

The Solar Surge Powers a Revolution

Solar power has been the undisputed champion of the transition to clean energy. It delivered the vast majority of the expansion in renewable generation, single-handedly fulfilling 83 percent of the additional worldwide power requirement. This marks the third consecutive year that solar has been the primary contributor to new electrical capacity across the globe. The rapid expansion is a direct result of dramatic cost reductions. Since 1975, the price of solar technology has plummeted by an astonishing 99.9%, making it an incredibly affordable and accessible energy source. This affordability has catalysed the emergence of substantial solar markets in countries in the space of just twelve months, particularly where power from the main grid is both costly and inconsistent.

The impact of this solar boom is most evident in nations with less developed economies, which now account for 58% of all solar generation. Nations like Pakistan have witnessed tremendous growth, importing solar arrays with a potential output of 17 gigawatts (GW) in 2024 by itself. This figure is double the previous year's imports and represents roughly one-third of the country's entire existing electricity generation capacity. The phenomenon is not isolated; it is a clear indicator of a global trend where solar energy is empowering nations and reshaping their energy futures from the ground up.

A Tale of Two Hemispheres

The worldwide energy transition is not unfolding uniformly. A clear divergence is emerging between the strategies of developing and developed nations. China and India have been the primary drivers behind the recent surge in renewables. China, while still expanding its coal fleet, has added more wind and solar infrastructure than all other nations put together. This monumental effort allowed its renewable generation to exceed its growing power requirements, resulting in a 2% reduction in its consumption of carbon-based fuels. Similarly, India’s significant investment in fresh wind and solar installations, coupled with slower growth in electricity demand, enabled it to reduce its consumption of gas and coal.

Conversely, developed nations have presented a contrasting picture. In the United States, the need for power expanded more rapidly than the expansion of clean energy, leading to an increased dependency on carbon-based fuels. The European Union faced a similar situation, where months of poor performance from hydropower and wind assets necessitated an increase in power produced from gas and coal to meet its energy needs. This division underscores the different economic and political pressures shaping energy policy across the globe, creating a complex and multifaceted transition landscape.

The American Outlook Dims

The future for sustainable power inside the United States appears to be at a critical juncture, with projections significantly scaled back. The IEA has delivered a sobering assessment, halving its prediction for American sustainable power expansion in the coming ten years. The previous year, the organization foresaw the installation of 500 gigawatts of fresh sustainable infrastructure by 2030, mostly from wind and solar. That forecast has now been drastically cut to just 250GW. This revision is the most complete assessment so far regarding the effects of policies from the Trump presidency on the nation's clean energy trajectory.

The IEA's analysis points to a number of policy changes contributing to this slowdown. These include the early phase-out of federal tax credits, which have been a key driver of renewables growth for decades. New import restrictions and a suspension of new offshore wind leasing have further hampered progress. Additionally, restrictions on the permitting of onshore wind and solar projects on federal land have created significant roadblocks for developers. This policy environment has created uncertainty and is expected to slow the pace of America's move towards cleaner power, especially for the wind sector, which has seen its growth forecast reduced by almost 60%.

China's Unchallenged Clean Tech Supremacy

While some nations falter, China's dominance in the clean technology sector remains absolute and continues to grow. The nation's exports of clean tech products reached a record-breaking $20 billion during August of 2025. This surge was primarily driven by booming purchases of electric-powered cars (EVs), which saw a 26% increase, and batteries, which rose by 23%. The combined value of China's EV and battery exports now more than doubles the worth of its exported solar panels, showcasing a strategic diversification and strengthening of its green manufacturing base.

This economic might is not confined to established markets. More than half of the expansion of China's EV exports this year has come from outside the OECD, with developing regions playing a key role. Exports to ASEAN nations, for example, soared by 75%, with Indonesia emerging as a major growth engine. The country witnessed the largest increase in Chinese EV imports globally, becoming the world's ninth-largest EV market. This global reach demonstrates how China is not only powering its own transition but is also becoming the primary supplier for a world increasingly hungry for affordable and accessible clean technology.

Africa's Solar Dawn

The African continent is experiencing a remarkable solar energy boom, transforming its energy landscape. With 60% of the world's best solar resources, Africa's potential is immense, offering a powerful solution to the fact that over 600 million people still lack access to electricity. This potential is now being realised, with imports of solar panels from China to African nations increasing by 60% in the twelve months prior to June. This surge signifies a massive expansion of solar adoption beyond early leaders like South Africa. Nigeria, the continent's most populous nation, has now overtaken Egypt to become the second-largest importer of solar capacity.

The growth is not limited to the continent's giants. Smaller nations are witnessing an even quicker rate of growth. Algeria's solar imports, for instance, have increased a staggering 33-fold. Zambia has seen an eightfold increase, while Botswana's imports have grown sevenfold. This widespread adoption is driven by the falling cost of solar technology and, in many cases, the rising price and unreliability of diesel generators. For many individuals and businesses across Africa, solar is no longer a luxury but a practical and economic necessity, providing a pathway to reliable and affordable power.

Image Credit - by Marta Victoria, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

The Unforeseen Challenges of Progress

The rapid and widespread adoption of new technologies, even beneficial ones, can create unexpected consequences. In Afghanistan, the solar revolution has taken a concerning turn. The extensive usage of water pumps driven by solar energy, while providing much-needed irrigation for agriculture, is leading to a rapid depletion of the water table. This unforeseen side effect is jeopardizing the future availability of underground water, a vital resource for millions of people. A study by Dr David Mansfield and the satellite data firm Alcis has issued a stark warning that certain areas might face acute water shortages in five to ten years' time, which would put millions of livelihoods at risk.

This situation in Afghanistan serves as a critical reminder that the transition to clean energy must be managed holistically. It highlights the need for careful planning and consideration of the broader environmental and social impacts of new energy systems. As nations embrace solar and other renewable technologies, they must also develop strategies to ensure their sustainable implementation. This includes managing resource use, such as water, and investing in infrastructure and policies that support a just and equitable transition for all communities, ensuring that the solutions to one problem do not inadvertently create another.

Diverging Paths in the Sun and Wind Belts

The journey towards a renewable future presents different challenges depending on a country's geography. The chair of the Energy Transitions Commission in the UK, Adair Turner, highlights a key distinction between nations in the global "sun belt" and "wind belt." For sun belt nations, which include large parts of Africa, Latin America, and Asia, the path is relatively straightforward. These regions often have a high demand for electricity during the day for air conditioning. Solar-based systems offer an almost immediate and significant reduction in energy costs, supported by the increasing affordability of battery storage to provide power through the night.

In contrast, nations in the wind belt, such as the UK, face more formidable obstacles. The cost of wind turbines has not fallen as dramatically as the cost for solar panels, decreasing by only about a third over the past ten years. Higher interest rates have also increased borrowing costs, making the installation of new wind farms significantly more expensive over the last few years. Balancing the grid is also a greater challenge. Calm periods for winter wind can persist for multiple weeks, necessitating alternative power generation that goes beyond what batteries alone can currently provide, making the entire system more complex and costly to construct and manage.

The UK's Wind Energy Conundrum

The United Kingdom has ambitious goals for wind power, aiming to significantly increase its capacity by 2030. However, the path to achieving these targets is fraught with challenges. The industry faces spiralling costs for building and maintaining wind farms, driven by inflation in raw materials like steel and copper. A limited availability of specialised installation vessels and shortages of skilled labour further compound the financial pressures. These rising costs are a significant hurdle, particularly for a sector that relies on long-term financial planning and stable investment environments.

Beyond the financial pressures, there are significant infrastructure bottlenecks. The UK's national grid was not designed to handle the massive and often variable flows of electricity from large-scale renewable projects. Delays in connecting new wind farms to the grid can be substantial, sometimes stretching up to a decade. Grid congestion, particularly in Scotland, forces wind farms to curtail their output, shutting down turbines even when the wind is blowing strongly. Addressing these grid limitations and investing in modernised infrastructure are critical to unlocking the full potential of the United Kingdom's abundant wind resources and ensuring a reliable clean energy future.

Innovations in Solar Technology

The relentless pace of innovation continues to drive the solar energy sector forward, promising even greater efficiency and affordability. Researchers and manufacturers are constantly pushing the boundaries of what is possible with photovoltaic technology. One of the most promising advancements is the development of tandem perovskite-silicon solar cells. These next-generation cells have achieved record efficiencies of up to 34.85% in laboratory settings, far exceeding the theoretical limits of traditional single-junction silicon cells. This breakthrough has the potential to significantly increase the amount of electricity that can be generated from a given area, making solar power even more viable for space-constrained locations.

Alongside efficiency gains, innovations are also focused on improving the versatility and durability of solar panels. Bifacial panels, which can capture sunlight from both sides, are becoming more common, boosting energy yield. New materials and coatings are being developed to enhance the lifespan and resilience of panels, ensuring they can withstand harsh weather conditions for decades. Furthermore, the integration of artificial intelligence and smart grid technologies is enabling more sophisticated energy management, optimising the generation, storage, and distribution of power from solar to create a more stable and resilient electricity system for the future.

The Crucial Role of Energy Storage

As the world increasingly relies on intermittent renewable sources like wind and solar, the importance of energy storage has become paramount. Storing excess energy when the sun is shining or the wind is blowing and releasing it when demand is high or generation is low is the key to ensuring a stable and reliable power supply. The cost of lithium-ion batteries, the dominant storage technology, has fallen dramatically over the past decade, from around $350 per kilowatt-hour in 2015 to below $115 per kilowatt-hour in 2024. This cost reduction is making battery storage an increasingly viable and essential component of modern energy systems.

The worldwide energy storage market is projected to experience substantial growth, expanding by an estimated 21% annually until 2030. While lithium-ion batteries currently lead the market, research and development into alternative technologies, such as flow batteries and supercapacitors, are gaining momentum. These emerging technologies offer the potential for longer duration storage and greater durability. The coupling of large-scale battery storage with renewable energy projects is transforming intermittent power sources into dispatchable assets, capable of providing grid stability and ensuring that clean energy is available whenever it is needed, day or night.

Economic and Geopolitical Shifts          

The worldwide energy transition is not just a technological shift; it is also reshaping economic relationships and geopolitical dynamics. China's rise as the planet's clean-tech factory has profound implications for global trade and energy security. The nation's ability to produce solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles at a massive scale and at a low cost has made it an indispensable player in the worldwide effort to decarbonise. This dominance gives China significant economic leverage and influence over the pace and direction of the energy transition in countries across the planet.

In contrast, the United States is focusing its energy strategy on persuading other nations to purchase additional amounts of its gas and oil. This creates a stark divergence in the approaches of the world's two largest economies. While one is building the foundations of a new, clean energy system, the other is doubling down on the fossil fuel economy of the past. This dynamic is creating new lines of competition and cooperation, as nations navigate a changing energy landscape. The choices made by these global powers will have a lasting impact on the global economy, the environment, and the future of international relations.

A Decisive Moment for the Planet

The world stands at a decisive moment. The fact that renewable energy has surpassed coal as the main provider of electrical power is a landmark achievement and a cause for optimism. It demonstrates that a transition to a clean energy future is not just possible but is already underway. The incredible expansion of wind and solar power, driven by falling costs and technological innovation, has fundamentally altered the economics of energy and created a powerful momentum for change. This progress is a testament to the ingenuity and commitment of countless individuals, companies, and governments across the globe.

However, the journey is far from over, and the path ahead is complex and challenging. The divergence between developed and developing nations, the policy headwinds in key markets, and the unforeseen environmental consequences of rapid technological deployment all highlight the need for a more coordinated and thoughtful approach. Malgorzata Wiatros-Motyka, a senior analyst at Ember, explained that this development signifies the start of a transitionary period where the growth of clean electricity is successfully matching rising power demand. The challenge now is to accelerate this shift, to ensure that it is equitable and sustainable, and to seize this historic opportunity to build a cleaner, healthier, and more prosperous future for all.