President Museveni Builds a Dynasty

Uganda's Iron Fist: The Elite Force Securing a Political Dynasty

Across Uganda's urban centres, a formidable military group has become an increasingly common sight. Its members, often masked and carrying automatic weapons, are part of a specialised force. Many Ugandans now see this group as a personal force whose purpose is to preserve the authority of 81-year-old President Yoweri Museveni. Their presence underpins his rule and the expanding influence of his family. The Special Forces Command, or SFC, functions at the centre of the nation’s politics. Its actions and loyalties appear pivotal to the future of a country that has been under one man's leadership for nearly four decades. The unit’s growth mirrors the consolidation of presidential power and raises profound questions about Uganda's stability.

A Legacy Forged in Rebellion

Yoweri Museveni’s leadership of Uganda began in 1986. He was not elected but took control after his militia advanced on Kampala, the capital city. His ascent concluded a brutal five-year bush war. Since that victory, he has secured wins in multiple presidential elections. However, international observers and opposition parties have consistently marred these contests with allegations of widespread violence and systematic rigging. Each electoral cycle brings fresh accusations of voter intimidation and ballot-stuffing. These persistent claims have created a deep-seated distrust in the democratic process. The president’s National Resistance Movement (NRM) party has nonetheless dominated the political landscape, leaving little room for a genuine opposition to emerge.

A History of Violent Transitions

This pattern of contested authority is not a recent phenomenon for the nation. Uganda has a turbulent political history stretching back to when it gained autonomy in 1962. Since that time, every single transfer of power has occurred through force. The country has witnessed a succession of military coups and armed rebellions. This history has entrenched the military as the ultimate arbiter of political power. Consequently, a leader's survival often depends more on the loyalty of their armed forces than on the will of the electorate. This context is crucial for understanding President Museveni’s focus on cultivating an unshakeably loyal specialised armed force. For him, control of the military is synonymous with control of the state.

The Genesis of a Praetorian Guard

President Museveni established the group that would become the SFC shortly after he initially assumed the presidency. It began as the Presidential Protection Unit, a small detail tasked with his personal security. Its foundational creed, which states that loyalty is indispensable, clearly articulated its primary purpose from the outset. Over the decades, it has evolved dramatically from a simple bodyguard contingent into a powerful and sophisticated military force. Its expansion has been deliberate, mirroring the president’s own consolidation of authority over the state apparatus. This transformation signals a shift from a protective detail to an instrument of regime preservation, capable of projecting power across the nation.

A Force Superior and Separate

The SFC stands apart from the regular Uganda People's Defence Forces (UPDF). The unit receives the best funding, the most advanced equipment, and the most specialised training available in the entire nation. Dr Gerald Bareebe, an academic who is an expert on the region, describes it as the most potent contingent within the entire Ugandan military structure. Its officers are considered the most elite in the nation. The unit is thought to comprise more than 10,000 personnel, a significant number compared to the standard army's approximately 40,000 active service members. This preferential treatment has created a clear hierarchy within the armed forces, positioning the SFC as a privileged and more powerful entity.

The General's Son and His Command

General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, the president's son, is central to the SFC's development. He has commanded the elite force on two separate occasions and is widely credited with overseeing its significant expansion and modernisation. Although he was elevated to the role of defence forces chief in early 2024, many insiders believe he retains effective command of the SFC. The unit’s current commander officially reports to him, and he continues to operate primarily from its headquarters. This building, located in Entebbe, bears his father’s name, further cementing the link between the force, the son, and the president. His continued influence ensures the SFC's allegiance remains firmly with the first family.

Consolidating a Family's Power

The Museveni family’s entanglement in the state is extensive. The president’s wife, Janet Museveni, has long served as the minister for education and sports. His son, Muhoozi, now heads the entire military. In a move seen by many as perpetuating this trend, the president announced in 2023 that his grandson had also enrolled in the army. Critics interpret these developments not as matters of public service but as a calculated strategy to create a political dynasty. They argue the president is methodically placing family members in key positions of power. This ensures that authority over the nation's political and military institutions remains within a tight family circle, preparing the ground for a potential hereditary succession.

Muhoozi's Unconventional Path to Power

General Kainerugaba has made no secret of his political ambitions. He has openly stated his ambition to take over from his father as president one day. To this end, he has launched a political vehicle, the Patriotic League of Uganda (PLU), which he frames as a non-partisan movement. However, his political activities draw heavy criticism, as Ugandan law forbids serving military officers from engaging in partisan politics. He is also infamous for his erratic and often inflammatory posts on social media. His online remarks have included threats against opposition figures, personal insults aimed at veteran generals, and a flippant suggestion that he could invade neighbouring Kenya, causing a diplomatic stir.

A Campaign of Fear and Intimidation

Critics of the government level serious accusations against the SFC. They charge the unit with a methodical effort to kidnap, brutalise, and murder political opponents. These alleged abuses are not confined to election periods but occur year-round. Robert Kyagulanyi, the opposition figure who is also the pop star Bobi Wine, has characterised the unit as a group focused on torture, responsible for brutalising him and his supporters. A particularly high-profile case involved Edward Sebuufu, a bodyguard for Kyagulanyi. General Kainerugaba confirmed his personnel were detaining Sebuufu in his basement, mocking the man’s shaven head in an online message that provoked widespread anger over such blatant abuse of power.

An Existence Beyond Accountability

A pervasive sense of impunity surrounds the SFC. Its operatives are widely seen as operating above the law, shielded from consequences by their direct allegiance to the head of state. While the unit denies its involvement in human rights abuses, accountability is exceptionally rare. In a notable exception, an SFC soldier faced a military trial and received a death sentence in late 2023 for murdering three people. However, such cases are few and far between. More common are incidents like one reported in May 2024, where allegations were made that SFC personnel had tortured a motorcycle taxi driver who inadvertently got caught within a presidential motorcade. The presidency announced an investigation, but critics remain sceptical of any meaningful outcome.

Formalising a Controversial Force

For years, the unit's secretive activities frequently prompted claims that it was an unlawful body. That changed in June 2023 when Uganda’s parliament enacted a contentious piece of legislation. This new statute formally acknowledged the SFC as an official military service, positioning it with the land, air, and reserve forces. The move was fiercely contested by opposition members of parliament. One prominent opposition MP, Ibrahim Ssemujju Nganda, argued the law simply legitimised a body that had been functioning outside the law for years. He and others contended that the force ought to be dissolved, not granted legitimacy, due to its record of repression.

Resentment and Division in the Ranks

The SFC's privileged status has reportedly caused rising dissatisfaction inside the regular UPDF. A high-ranking military figure, who wished to remain anonymous, spoke to reporters about bitterness regarding the unit's hiring methods. Multiple sources claim the SFC overwhelmingly draws its members largely from the Banyankore ethnic community of President Museveni, as well as associated groups from western Uganda. This practice is seen as a strategy to guarantee absolute allegiance to the head of state, based on ethnic kinship rather than national duty. An analysis of the SFC’s leadership supports this claim; nearly all its past commanders originate from the same western area as the president. This perceived favouritism creates dangerous ethnic fault lines within the armed forces.

The Specter of a Sudanese Scenario

This internal friction has led some analysts to draw a worrying parallel with Sudan. There, a brutal civil war erupted in 2023 following a contest for dominance involving the state military and a strong paramilitary organisation, the Rapid Support Forces or RSF, which had once been allied with the state. Observers fear a similar confrontation could erupt in a post-Museveni Uganda. A clash between the loyalties and interests of the SFC and the regular UPDF could trigger massive political turmoil and violence. Godber Tumushabe, a well-regarded Ugandan commentator, has cautioned that notwithstanding the nation's outward stability, the situation is merely "the absence of war," suggesting a fragile peace.

An Uphill Battle for the Opposition

As Uganda looks towards a general election scheduled for 2026, the political climate remains tense. Opposition leaders like Bobi Wine face an immense challenge. They have consistently accused the SFC of actively working to prevent them from campaigning. During the 2021 election, they reported that SFC officers routinely dispersed their rallies, intimidated their supporters, and subjected them to physical violence. With the unit's power now formally enshrined in law, there is deep concern that such tactics will only intensify. Those in opposition are concerned they are not competing against a political party, but against the entire security apparatus of the state, making a fair contest virtually impossible.

The General's Strategic Positioning

While the opposition struggles, General Kainerugaba continues to position himself for the presidency. His PLU movement holds rallies across the country, which look and feel like political campaign events. He uses these gatherings to build a public profile and a network of supporters, bypassing the traditional party structures. His actions blur the lines between his military role and his political aspirations, a move his critics call unconstitutional. He appears to be executing a dual strategy: consolidating his command of the military's most powerful elements while simultaneously building a populist political base. This approach suggests a carefully planned transition aimed at keeping power within the family.

An Inherited Mantle or a Contested Throne

The future of Uganda hinges on the question of succession. Some analysts believe that General Kainerugaba is uniquely positioned to unify the country's competing groups. They argue his extensive experience in both the SFC and the standard military gives him the credibility to manage the armed forces and ensure a stable transition. This would, in effect, guarantee the survival of the Museveni family's rule. However, another, more ominous, possibility exists. Many others fear that his ascent, far from ensuring stability, could be the very spark that ignites a violent power struggle. The deep resentment towards the SFC and the perception of an ethnically biased dynasty could prove too much for the nation's fragile institutions to bear.

A Nation's Future in the Balance

Ultimately, Uganda's path forward is uncertain. The deep militarisation of its politics, embodied by the rise of the SFC, has created a precarious situation. The unit functions as the ultimate guarantor of regime survival, capable of suppressing dissent from political opponents and potential rivals inside the armed forces itself. Whether President Museveni engineers a smooth transfer of power to his son or leaves behind a power vacuum, the SFC will undoubtedly play a decisive role. The fate of Uganda's democracy and stability rests not with its voters or its politicians, but with the men in uniform and the powerful family they are sworn to protect.