Ecuador Proests Fuel Subsidy Cuts

Ecuador on Edge: President's Motorcade Attacked Amid Deepening Crisis

Tensions in Ecuador have escalated dramatically after an attack on President Daniel Noboa's motorcade. The administration is describing the incident as a plot to murder the president. Five individuals were detained following the assault in the southern province of Cañar, where a crowd of approximately 500 people reportedly hurled stones at the presidential convoy. The minister for energy and the environment, Ines Manzano, stated that the president's vehicle showed markings consistent with gunfire, though Mr Noboa was unharmed. The administration has announced that those arrested will face serious charges, which include acts of terrorism and a conspiracy to commit murder.

The attack underscores the profound social and political volatility gripping the nation. For more than two weeks, the nation has been convulsed by widespread protests and violent clashes, primarily led by the powerful Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (CONAIE). The unrest was ignited by the government's controversial decision to eliminate long-standing diesel subsidies, a move that has sent fuel prices soaring and stoked public anger. While the administration defends the policy as a necessary fiscal measure, critics argue it will disproportionately harm the country's most vulnerable populations.

The Flashpoint: Subsidy Removal

President Daniel Noboa's administration announced the immediate removal of diesel subsidies on 13 September 2025, framing it as a crucial step to reduce the fiscal deficit. The government projects that this austerity measure will save the country $1.1 billion annually. Officials have pledged to redirect these funds to agriculturalists with small holdings and to people working in the transport industry, arguing the subsidies have historically been inefficient. However, the immediate effect was a sharp increase in the price of diesel, which jumped from approximately $1.80 to $2.80 per gallon.

This decision has been met with fierce opposition. The policy has particularly hit rural communities, the agricultural sector, and Indigenous groups who rely on diesel for their livelihoods and transportation. A countrywide strike was promptly initiated by CONAIE, Ecuador's most prominent Indigenous federation. The group argued the subsidy removal is devastating for millions of families and the productive sectors of the economy. This action has paralysed parts of the country, with protesters organising marches and road blockades to voice their dissent.

A History of Unrest

The current wave of protests is not an isolated event. Ecuador has a history of social upheaval related to economic policies, particularly concerning fuel subsidies. Similar nationwide demonstrations erupted in 2019 and 2022 over the same issue, also led by CONAIE. The organisation has a formidable track record of political influence; its mobilisations were a factor in the toppling of three separate presidents in the years spanning from 1997 to 2005. This history lends significant weight to their current mobilisation, creating a challenging environment for President Noboa's government.

The 2022 protests against then-President Guillermo Lasso were particularly violent, lasting 18 days and resulting in eight deaths and hundreds of injuries. The current demonstrations have also seen violence, with reports of one protester killed and injuries among multiple military personnel. CONAIE has charged the administration with a harsh suppression of dissent and unjustified detentions, while the administration has characterised the demonstrators' activities as unlawful. The tense standoff reflects a deep-seated conflict over the country's economic direction and the social costs of austerity.

The Attack and Its Aftermath

The assault on President Noboa’s convoy occurred as he travelled to an event in Cañar province. His office released video footage showing people pelting a vehicle with stones, which had visible cracks on its windows. Following the incident, Mr Noboa maintained a defiant stance, stating his government would not tolerate such actions. Speaking at a student event shortly after, he asserted that attacks would not be accepted in the "new Ecuador" and that the law applies to everyone.

In contrast, CONAIE presented a different narrative. The Indigenous federation claimed that violence was orchestrated against people who had mobilised for the president's arrival, alleging a "brutal police and military action." They reported that at least five of their members were arbitrarily detained during the incident. This starkly conflicting account highlights the deep mistrust and polarisation between the government and the protest movement, complicating any path towards a peaceful resolution.

A Nation Under Pressure

The fuel subsidy crisis unfolds against a backdrop of broader challenges for Ecuador. The nation has operated under a state of "internal armed conflict" since January 2024, a declaration made by President Noboa in response to a surge in gang-related violence. This has led to an increased military and police presence across the nation and the imposition of states of emergency in several provinces, which include curfews and the suspension of certain constitutional rights. The security crisis has seen homicide rates soar, placing Ecuador among the most violent countries in Latin America.

Elected in 2023 to complete the term of his predecessor, the 37-year-old Noboa has adopted a tough-on-crime stance. However, he also faces a sluggish economy, with the IMF projecting minimal growth for the current year. His administration has pursued an austerity plan to secure IMF support, which includes not only cutting fuel subsidies but also increasing the value-added tax. These measures, while praised by international financial institutions, have contributed to a decline in his once-high approval ratings.

Competing Narratives and Accusations

The administration has sought to link the protests to criminal elements. President Noboa has claimed that organised crime and illegal mining groups have infiltrated the demonstrations, a charge protest leaders vehemently deny. Officials have gone as far as accusing some protesters of terrorism, with at least 13 individuals facing such charges. This rhetoric further inflames the situation, with human rights organisations expressing concern over the government's hardline approach and the potential for excessive use of force.

CONAIE, for its part, alleges the administration is engaging in provocation. The organisation argues that the president's decision to travel through "a zone of resistance" was a deliberate attempt to incite conflict and justify a repressive response. They maintain that their mobilisation is a legitimate exercise of the right to protest against policies that threaten their livelihoods and deepen inequality. The group insists their movement is not terroristic but a historic struggle for dignity and rights.

The Economic Rationale and its Discontents

For decades, fuel subsidies have been an entrenched feature of the Ecuadorian economy, keeping transport and agricultural costs artificially low. Successive governments have struggled to remove them due to the high political cost. Proponents of the reform argue that the subsidies are a significant drain on the national budget, diverting funds from essential services like healthcare and education. They also point out that these subsidies disproportionately benefit wealthier segments of the population who consume more fuel.

However, the abrupt removal of these subsidies has a severe impact on the poor, who are vulnerable to increases in food prices and public transport costs. Critics of the government's approach argue that such reforms need to be implemented gradually and accompanied by a robust social safety net to protect those most affected. The lack of broad public trust in the government's promise to reallocate the savings exacerbates the resistance to the policy change.

A President at a Crossroads

Daniel Noboa, the son of a banana tycoon, came to power positioning himself as a reformist leader ready to tackle Ecuador's deep-seated security and economic problems. He inherited a country in crisis and initially enjoyed high popularity for his "iron fist" approach to crime. However, his presidency is now being tested on multiple fronts. The ongoing energy crisis, which led to nationwide blackouts in 2024, and the stagnant economy have chipped away at his public support.

The current standoff with the Indigenous movement presents perhaps his greatest political challenge to date. His administration's ability to navigate this crisis will be crucial for his political future, especially with a presidential election on the horizon in February 2025. While he remains a strong contender, the race is becoming more competitive, and his handling of the protests could significantly influence voters. He must balance the need for fiscal discipline with the demands for social stability in an increasingly fragile political landscape.

International Reactions and a Tense Future

The escalating unrest has drawn international attention. Several foreign governments, including Costa Rica, Honduras, and Panama, have condemned the attack on the presidential motorcade and expressed solidarity with Ecuador's democratic institutions. South Korea has raised its travel alert for Ecuador, citing the growing safety risks from the anti-government protests. The tense situation is being closely watched by international human rights organisations, which have called for dialogue and restraint from all sides.

The future remains uncertain. The government shows no signs of backing down on its subsidy reform, insisting it is vital for national recovery. Emergency measures remain in place in several provinces, granting expanded powers to security forces. Meanwhile, CONAIE and its allies have vowed to continue their indefinite national strike until their demands are met. The deep divisions and escalating rhetoric leave little room for compromise, suggesting that Ecuador may be facing a prolonged period of instability and conflict.