ONS Faces Damning Devereux Review

Crisis at the Count: UK Statistics Office Faces Damning Review and £10m Overhaul

The United Kingdom's primary statistics body requires a complete £10m restructuring following a damning report that uncovered a legacy of management failures and significant errors. An inquiry that examined the Office for National Statistics (ONS) uncovered "deep-seated" problems that have undermined the quality of crucial economic data, prompting calls for a radical overhaul of its leadership and operations. The investigation, spearheaded by Sir Robert Devereux, a retired public servant, has sent shockwaves through Whitehall, where the agency's figures form the bedrock of economic and social policy. The findings confirm long-held fears among economists and policymakers about the reliability of the nation's key statistics.

The scathing assessment has forced the ONS to confront its issues head-on, with the organisation publishing its own detailed plans for improvement in conjunction with the review's release. This moment represents a critical juncture for the Newport-based agency. Restoring confidence in its work is now paramount, not just for its own reputation, but for the stability of UK economic decision-making. The joint response from the UK Statistics Authority and the Cabinet Office acknowledged the review's findings and expressed a commitment to implementing its recommendations to ensure the delivery of timely and accurate statistics.

A Verdict of 'Deep-Seated' Issues

Sir Robert Devereux's examination of the national statistics body painted a grim picture of an organisation grappling with profound and long-standing cultural problems. His report identified these "deep-seated" issues as the root cause of the numerous widely reported mistakes which have harmed the agency's credibility. The investigation, commissioned jointly by the Cabinet Office and the UK Statistics Authority in April 2025, was tasked with assessing the ONS's performance, culture, and leadership. Sir Robert concluded that many of the well-publicised failings were a direct result of the ONS's own performance and choices made at the highest levels over several years.

The review highlighted a worrying trend where senior management became distracted by ambitious new projects. This innovative drive, though praiseworthy, was at the expense of the more routine yet essential duty of providing foundational economic figures with the precision needed for sound policymaking. This diversion of resources and attention away from fundamental responsibilities is seen as a key factor in the decline of data quality. The report suggests a culture where the basics were neglected in favour of more prestigious, forward-looking initiatives, ultimately leading to the current crisis of confidence.

Proposed Leadership Shake-Up

The Devereux Review puts forward a central, radical recommendation: the temporary division of the top role at the ONS. Sir Robert proposed a division of the National Statistician's duties. This would establish a new position, an ONS Permanent Secretary, who would be responsible for managing the organisation's complex operations and overseeing the comprehensive restructuring. At the same time, the National Statistician would focus exclusively on the technical aspects of the role, assuming ultimate accountability for the correctness and integrity of all released information.

This move aims to bring in dedicated operational expertise to tackle the managerial and planning inadequacies identified in the report. Devereux suggested the proposed permanent secretary job should be filled by a person with demonstrated experience in guiding and successfully reforming a major operational business. The rationale is that the current crisis stems more from failures in management, risk assessment, and budgeting than from purely statistical shortcomings. The UK Statistics Authority and Cabinet Office have already accepted this recommendation and plan to begin the recruitment process for the new post.

Image Credit - Civil Service World

A Temporary Fix for a Deeper Problem

Devereux further explained that his proposal to split the leadership role is intended as a temporary measure. He believes this separation is necessary for a "turnaround period" to allow the organisation to stabilise and address its core operational failings. The appointment of a seasoned operational leader as Permanent Secretary would allow the ONS to focus intensely on improving its internal processes, planning, and risk management, which the review identified as major weaknesses. This focused leadership is deemed essential to steer the organisation back onto a more secure foundation.

However, Devereux expressed optimism that the roles could be recombined in the future. He suggested that with a concerted investment in nurturing the clear potential inside the government's statistical service, a single leader could once again effectively manage both the operational and statistical functions of the agency. This long-term vision depends on the successful implementation of the current reforms and the nurturing of a new generation of leaders who possess both managerial acumen and statistical expertise. First, the organisation must navigate this critical period of change.

A Culture of Defensiveness

Among the extremely harsh evaluations in the report from Devereux was the identification of an environment within the top ranks that was unreceptive to challenging information. The report described a reluctance to hear and, crucially, act upon difficult warnings. This cultural issue meant that problems were often not addressed until they became public failures. The review stated there was a hesitation by certain individuals to accept the alerts that were presented. This defensiveness has been a recurring theme, with the ONS's own regulator previously criticising the agency for its response to critiques.

Instead of viewing internal and external warnings as valuable feedback, there was an apparent inclination to label the messengers as being irresponsible. This defensive posture created blind spots within the organisation's leadership, preventing timely intervention. The review suggests this culture contributed significantly to the escalation of problems with key datasets, as early warning signs about systemic weaknesses were seemingly downplayed or ignored. Changing this deep-rooted cultural trait is now a key challenge for the ONS's interim leadership.

The Human Cost of Crisis

The intense pressure and scrutiny on the ONS have coincided with significant changes at the top. The person who had led the organisation since 2019, Professor Sir Ian Diamond, announced his resignation as National Statistician in May 2025, citing ongoing health issues. His departure came midway while the Devereux investigation was ongoing and during a period of mounting criticism over the reliability of ONS data. In his resignation statement, Sir Ian acknowledged that the agency's next chapter would demand vigorous guidance to enact the review's findings, a commitment he felt unable to make due to his health.

Sir Ian led the ONS through the Covid-19 pandemic, a period during which it delivered the widely praised Covid Infection Survey and a successful 2021 Census. However, his tenure was also marked by the growing data quality issues that prompted the independent review. Following his departure, Emma Rourke, the Deputy National Statistician for Health, Population and Methods, stepped into the position of interim National Statistician, tasked with steering the organisation through this turbulent period and beginning the process of reform.

Interim Leadership and the Path Forward

In the wake of Sir Ian Diamond's departure, Emma Rourke has taken the helm in an acting capacity. She faces the immediate and formidable task of addressing the serious issues that the Devereux report brought to light and beginning the long process of restoring trust in the organisation. In her initial response, Rourke stated that the review represented a pivotal moment for her organisation and affirmed a commitment to putting its suggestions into practice. She stressed a reset towards an internal environment that actively welcomes constructive criticism and questioning, a direct response to a central critique in the findings.

Rourke has already taken concrete steps, including broadening the membership of the ONS's Executive Committee and simplifying management structures to improve decision-making. Her leadership will be crucial in navigating the initial phase of the reform process. The UK Statistics Authority’s chair, Sir Robert Chote, has expressed confidence that she will drive the ONS forward with a renewed focus on high-quality statistics. Her actions in the coming months will set the tone for the organisation's recovery and its ability to rebuild its damaged reputation.

Image Credit - Office for National Statistics

A Cascade of Data Failures

The investigation by Devereux was not initiated due to a single error but by a succession of problems across several of the UK's most important economic indicators. For years, City financial analysts, Members of Parliament, and officials from the Treasury and the Bank of England have voiced growing concern over the reliability of the agency's findings. These criticisms intensified as the ONS struggled with declining response levels from both commercial enterprises and individuals, a trend that accelerated throughout the period of the pandemic and has shown only limited signs of recovery. This drop in participation has severely impacted the reliability of its outputs.

The issues have been widespread and significant. They range from the suspension and subsequent revision of vital statistics concerning the job market to errors in calculating inflation. Problems have also been identified in trade data and the PPI, a key metric for industrial costs. Each of these failures has compounded the others, creating a cloud of uncertainty over the UK's economic picture and making it increasingly difficult for policymakers to make informed decisions. This persistent pattern of errors pointed to systemic failures within the organisation.

The Labour Market Data Debacle

Nowhere have the ONS's problems been more visible than in its figures concerning the job market. These figures, which measure the levels of employment and unemployment, have been subject to heavy revisions and are at the centre of the crisis of confidence. The core issue stems from a collapse in response rates for the Labour Force Survey (LFS), the primary source for this data. Response rates plummeted from nearly 40% before the pandemic to as low as 13% in 2023, forcing the ONS to temporarily suspend the publication of the full dataset in October 2023.

This lack of reliable data has created a substantial problem impacting the Bank of England, which relies on these figures to gauge inflationary pressures in the economy. The Resolution Foundation, a think tank, published research suggesting the flawed ONS data may have 'lost' almost a million workers and significantly overstated economic inactivity. Although the LFS publication has resumed, the statistics office has warned that the data should be treated with care, and the figures have lost their official "National Statistics" accreditation, a significant blow to their credibility.

Inflation Figures Under Scrutiny

The ONS's credibility suffered another blow when it emerged that key inflation figures contained inaccuracies. A mistake from a different government agency, which supplied faulty data to the ONS, caused an overstatement in the main figure for the Consumer Prices Index (CPI). The error inflated the April figure by a tenth of a percentage point. Despite identifying the error, the ONS made the controversial decision to not correct the number.

The organisation argued that a retrospective correction would cause chaos in financial markets. It reasoned that financiers holding financial instruments tied to inflation based on the published number would have grounds to claim compensation, creating a cascade of legal and financial complications. While the ONS's rationale was based on market stability, the refusal to correct a known error further damaged public trust. The incident highlighted the immense real-world impact of statistical accuracy and the difficult position the agency found itself in.

Flaws in Trade and Production Data

The problems at the ONS extend beyond the high-profile labour and inflation figures. The report from Devereux observed that issues with the UK's trade data were linked to "known concerns" about the software utilized for its compilation. Despite awareness of the system's flaws, it appears no effective action was taken until a significant error occurred. This reactive, rather than proactive, approach to risk management was a recurring theme in the review's findings, pointing to a systemic failure to address underlying weaknesses.

Similarly, the PPI, a measure of factory gate costs, was found to contain inaccuracies. Devereux's report revealed that staff were using outdated coding methods to compile the index. This adherence to old techniques hindered their capacity to detect and correct mistakes. These examples illustrate a broader problem within the ONS: a failure to invest in and modernise the core systems and processes responsible for producing fundamental economic statistics.

The 7am Release Controversy

A decision in 2020 to alter its economic data release time, shifting it from a 9:30 a.m. slot to the earlier 7:00 a.m., created further problems for the ONS. The move sparked immediate concerns that it placed staff under immense pressure to check and analyse complex information outside of normal office hours. This raised questions about both staff welfare and the potential for errors to be missed in the rush to meet the earlier deadline. The controversy eventually triggered a separate investigation by the national statistics watchdog.

That review concluded that moving the release time back to the traditional 9:30am slot was not feasible. One of the primary reasons cited was the inherent inadequacy of the agency's technology platforms. The systems were apparently not robust enough to handle the processes required for a later release, effectively trapping the organisation in a timetable that strained its resources and increased operational risk. This episode became another stark example of how underinvestment in core infrastructure was having a direct and damaging impact on the ONS's operations.

A £10m Plan to Restore Confidence

In direct response to the crisis, a ten million pound strategy has been unveiled by the ONS, aimed at urgently improving the precision of its figures. This strategy, titled 'Restoring confidence, improving quality', was published in conjunction with the Devereux report and outlines a series of immediate actions. The additional funding will be invested over the next two years and will support the recruitment of approximately 150 new skilled specialists to work on core demographic and economic figures. The plan represents the ONS’s public commitment to tackling its shortcomings.

The strategy focuses on three main areas: enhanced data collection methods, significant upgrades to underlying IT systems, and fostering a renewed culture of continuous improvement. Acting Director General for Economic Statistics, Grant Fitzner, stated that the plan is open about where the ONS needs to improve and forms a crucial part of its response to regulatory reviews. The success of this multi-faceted plan will be the ultimate test of the ONS’s ability to reform itself and win back the trust of the government, commercial enterprises, and the general population.

Revising History: A Sign of Strength

A significant and potentially controversial element of the ONS's new improvement plan is its open acknowledgement that previously published figures might require correction. The organisation has stated that adjusting the historical record is not a mistake. It is instead an indication of a statistics framework that is prepared to change based on new information and is transparent about its methods for getting better. This proactive stance on revisions marks a notable shift in tone for an organisation recently criticised for its defensiveness.

The ONS has pledged to collaborate with data consumers, including institutions like the Bank of England and Treasury officials, to ensure that any revisions or breaks in historical data series are managed carefully. It has also committed to providing support to help users navigate these changes. While revisions could create short-term uncertainty, the ONS is betting that this new commitment to transparency and accuracy will, in the long run, be the most effective way to restore its credibility and rebuild the trust it has lost.

Focusing on the Fundamentals

The report from Devereux established clearly that the ONS had lost its focus on the basics. It found that high-level management had concentrated their attention on implementing ambitious new information technology infrastructure, such as the Integrated Data Service, a project designed to improve data sharing across government. While these transformation programmes are valuable, they inadvertently diverted critical resources, funding, and skilled personnel away from the essential task of maintaining and upgrading existing systems responsible for producing core economic statistics.

This downgrading of the importance of a more mundane work had severe consequences. For example, the review noted that development of the new Statistical Business Register, a foundational piece of infrastructure, had fallen behind schedule. The ONS's new £10m plan explicitly seeks to reverse this trend. By funnelling new investment and around 150 skilled staff back into key demographic and economic figures, the organisation aims to rebalance its priorities and ensure that the fundamental data underpinning UK policy receives the attention and resources it requires.

The Broader Economic Impact

The failings at the ONS are not an abstract statistical issue; they have profound real-world consequences with regard to Britain's economy. Inaccurate data leads to flawed policy decisions. Officials from the Bank of England have been particularly vocal about the challenges, with Governor Andrew Bailey stating that unreliable labour market statistics have become a "substantial problem" for setting monetary policy. If the Bank cannot get a clear picture of wage growth or unemployment, its ability to control inflation by setting appropriate interest rates is severely hampered.

This uncertainty can lead to costly policy errors. Some economists have argued that interest rates may have been kept higher for longer than necessary because of skewed wage data, potentially costing households and the government billions. Beyond monetary policy, incorrect figures on GDP, trade, and population affect everything from government spending plans to business investment strategies. The integrity of official statistics is a cornerstone of a functioning modern economy, and the current crisis at the ONS has placed that foundation under severe pressure.

A System Under Strain

While the investigation by Devereux attributed much of the blame to internal ONS leadership and culture, it is also clear the agency has been operating in a challenging environment. For years, the ONS, like many public bodies, has faced constrained financial resources. At the same time, it has been tasked with delivering huge and complex transformation programmes while grappling with fundamental shifts in society, such as declining public participation in surveys. This trend predates the pandemic but was significantly worsened by it, making the ONS's traditional methods of data collection increasingly difficult.

Furthermore, the review noted that staff morale at the ONS, according to data from the Civil Service People Survey, has been on a downward trend since 2020. The pressure of maintaining services with limited resources while being subjected to intense public scrutiny has undoubtedly taken a toll on the workforce. While the ONS must take ownership of its failures, a wider understanding of the systemic pressures it faces is also necessary for a sustainable recovery.

The Governance Question

Beyond the immediate leadership changes, the investigation by Devereux has initiated a broader debate about the long-term governance of the UK's statistical system. Sir Robert's third and final recommendation was for a period of reflection on the most appropriate governance structure for the statistics office and the wider system. He noted that while the current model has worked well in the past, the recent challenges suggest it may be time for a reassessment. This could potentially lead to legislative changes to redefine the relationships between the ONS, its regulatory body, which is the Office for Statistics Regulation, and its government sponsors.

The UK Statistics Authority (UKSA) was established by the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 with the objective of promoting and safeguarding official statistics for the public good. The review now prompts fundamental questions about whether this structure remains fit for purpose. Issues such as the independence of the authority and potential conflicts between its production and regulation functions will be part of this future consideration. Ensuring the UK has a robust, independent, and effective statistical system is the ultimate goal.

International Context and Future Challenges

The challenges facing the ONS are not entirely unique to the United Kingdom. Statistical agencies across the developed world are grappling with similar issues, including declining survey response rates and the need to adapt to new forms of data. The digital age presents both an opportunity and a threat. While vast new administrative datasets (such as tax records) offer the potential to create more timely and granular statistics, harnessing this data effectively requires significant investment, new skills, and robust technological platforms. The statistics agency has attempted to make this transition, but its struggles highlight the difficulty of the task.

One of the future challenges mentioned in the ONS's improvement plan is the need to integrate the latest international frameworks, such as the UN's new system of national accounts, into its headline statistics. This requires meticulous work to reclassify and align data. Furthermore, the ONS is in the process of deciding whether to recommend replacing the traditional decennial census with a system based on administrative data, a monumental change with huge implications. Navigating these future challenges while fixing current problems will require exceptional focus and leadership.

Conclusion: A Long Road to Rebuilding Trust

The national statistics body for the UK finds itself at a pivotal moment. The inquiry from Devereux has exposed a host of deep-seated problems, from a flawed internal culture and misguided priorities to a string of harmful mistakes in the nation's most vital economic data. The proposed £10m overhaul, leadership split, and new improvement strategy represent a comprehensive and necessary response to this profound crisis of confidence. However, the implementation of these reforms will be a long and arduous process, and success is not guaranteed.

The task ahead is not merely technical; it is fundamentally about culture change and restoring credibility. The ONS must prove that it can foster an environment that welcomes challenge, prioritises the correctness of its foundational data, and communicates with transparency. The stakes could not be higher. The well-being of Britain's economy and the quality of public policy depend on reliable, trusted, and independent statistics. The road to recovery will be closely watched by all who rely on the ONS to make sense of a complex world.