German Army Prepares for War

Germany Confronts a New Era with Military Service Overhaul

A seismic shift is underway in German defence policy. The nation's ruling parties have hammered out a fresh approach to military recruitment, a decisive step designed to significantly increase the number of troops in the Bundeswehr. This move signals a profound departure from decades of post-Cold War military reticence, thrusting Germany into a new era of strategic recalculation spurred by rising geopolitical tensions across Europe. The plan represents a hard-won compromise after months of intense political negotiation, reflecting the gravity of the continent's altered security landscape and Berlin's ambition to become a leading military power in Europe.

A New Model for Recruitment

The freshly agreed-upon framework introduces a multi-stage process for military recruitment. It will legally require all young men turning eighteen to fill out and return a detailed questionnaire assessing their suitability and inclination for military life. For young women of the same age, receiving and responding to this survey will be an entirely voluntary option. This initial data-gathering phase is a critical component of the government’s strategy to build a comprehensive overview of potential recruits across the nation. It lays the groundwork for a more targeted and informed approach to bolstering the military's ranks in the coming years.

Mandatory Health Assessments to Follow

A further significant element of the plan will commence in July 2027. From that point, every man who reaches the age of 18 must participate in a thorough medical examination. This step is designed to definitively ascertain their physical fitness for military duty. The results of these screenings, combined with the questionnaire responses, will provide the Bundeswehr with a robust database of eligible individuals. This information will be crucial for strategic planning, especially in the event of a national crisis or if volunteer numbers fail to meet the government's ambitious targets for military expansion, creating a ready pool of vetted candidates.

Berlin's Continental Ambition

This strategic pivot in military policy is directly linked to Berlin's stated goal of establishing the most powerful conventional army in Europe. The initiative is a clear response to a changed security reality, particularly in the wake of Russia's comprehensive military campaign in Ukraine. The move away from a chronically underfunded and downsized military reflects a new political consensus that Germany must assume greater responsibility for collective defence. This ambition is not merely about troop numbers; it involves a comprehensive modernisation of equipment, a significant increase in defence spending, and a fundamental psychological shift in a nation long defined by its post-war pacifism.

Defence Industry Sees a Realistic Goal

The chief of Rheinmetall, Germany’s largest defence contractor, has publicly endorsed the government's military expansion as a feasible objective. Armin Papperger conveyed to the BBC his confidence that the goal to build the most formidable ground army on the continent could realistically be met within a five-year timeframe. He noted that Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s administration is making "clear decisions" to strengthen the Bundeswehr. This perspective from a key industry leader underscores the seriousness of the rearmament drive and signals that the industrial capacity exists to support such a rapid and large-scale military buildup, provided the political will and funding remain steadfast.

Awaiting a Parliamentary Vote

The future of this transformative armed forces recruitment strategy now depends on the country's lawmakers. Legislators expect to decide on the proposal prior to 2026. The outcome of this vote will be a landmark moment for German security policy, formally codifying the nation's response to a more dangerous world. The debate in the Bundestag is expected to be vigorous, touching upon sensitive historical legacies and the financial implications of such a significant military expansion. However, the cross-party agreement within the ruling coalition suggests a strong likelihood that the plan will be approved, heralding a new chapter for the Bundeswehr.

Stark Warnings from the Top Brass

The urgency behind this military reform has been amplified by stark warnings from senior military officials. The nation's defence chief, General Carsten Breuer, warned previously this year that the NATO alliance must prepare for the potential for a Russian assault inside of a four-year window. This alarming assessment has injected a sense of immediacy into the political discourse surrounding national defence. General Breuer’s analysis, based on intelligence reports and Russia's ongoing military rearmament, highlights the perceived need for Germany and its allies to rapidly enhance their deterrent and defensive capabilities to prevent a potential conflict on European soil.

A Readiness Target for 2029

The timeline for Germany's military readiness has become a focal point of the defence strategy. Echoing the concerns of military leaders, Rheinmetall's chief, Armin Papperger, acknowledged he lacked a crystal ball regarding future events but agreed with the necessity for Germany to be fully prepared by the year 2029. This specific target date aligns with military analyses suggesting it is the point by which Russia could rebuild its forces sufficiently to pose a direct threat to NATO territory. Achieving this state of readiness requires not just policy changes but also swift implementation, including accelerated procurement of military hardware and the successful expansion of personnel.

The Coalition's Compromise

The decision to reintroduce national service resulted from a compromise between the governing coalition partners. An accord was reached between the conservative CDU/CSU, led by Friedrich Merz, and the Social Democrats (SPD) to bring back military service, initially on a voluntary basis. This delicate political balancing act sought to address the urgent need for more troops while respecting deep-seated societal reluctance towards full-scale conscription. The resulting hybrid model represents a pragmatic approach, creating a framework for recruitment that can be intensified if voluntary enlistment proves insufficient to meet the nation's security requirements.

Ambitious Expansion Targets

The Bundeswehr, which currently comprises around 182,000 active troops, is set for a substantial expansion under the new model. The immediate goal is to increase its personnel by 20,000 troops over the coming twelve months. Over the longer term, the government aims for a standing army with a target size of 255,000 to 260,000 individuals within the next decade. This formidable force would be further supported by a reserve contingent of approximately 200,000 people. Achieving these numbers represents a monumental challenge, reversing more than a decade of downsizing and requiring a sustained national effort in recruitment and training.

The Specter of Compulsory Service

While the new system is initially structured around voluntary participation, it explicitly keeps the door open for a more coercive approach. Should the government's recruitment targets not be met, the parliament could consider introducing a system of mandatory drafting. In a scenario of outright war, the collected surveys and health evaluations would become an invaluable resource for the military, allowing for the rapid identification and call-up of potential recruits. This contingent provision underscores the seriousness of the perceived threat and the government's determination to ensure the nation's defence under any circumstances.

Opposition from the Political Left

Despite the coalition agreement, the armed forces recruitment strategy encounters staunch opposition, particularly from certain factions on the nation's political left. These groups continue to voice strong disapproval of any form of mandatory service, viewing it as an infringement on individual liberty and a step towards the militarisation of society. Their arguments often draw on Germany's 20th-century history and a long-standing pacifist tradition that has shaped the country's identity. This ideological resistance ensures that the plan's implementation, and especially any future move towards compulsion, will remain a contentious issue in German politics.

A Divided Younger Generation

Apprehension towards military service is particularly pronounced among Germany's youth, with a significant portion expressing opposition. A recent Forsa survey for Stern magazine highlighted this stark generational divide. The poll showed that while slightly more than half of all Germans supported the idea, 63 percent of individuals between 18 and 29 years old were against it. This demographic, the very group that would be directly affected by the new policy, demonstrates a strong reluctance to embrace military life. Their concerns range from moral objections to warfare to a desire to pursue their own career paths without interruption.

Voices of Conscience

The sentiment of many young people was articulated by Jimi, a seventeen-year-old pupil from the capital who participated in a protest against the new policy. He explained that his opposition to warfare came from a fundamental desire not to be killed or shot at. He also voiced a powerful moral objection, stating his unwillingness to open fire on other people. He characterised the threat of an attack on Germany as a remote and theoretical situation that the government was using to legitimise a policy that would steal the right of millions to determine their own futures.

A Sense of Duty

In stark contrast, other young citizens are enlisting specifically due to the heightened security risks. Jason, a 21-year-old who joined the Bundeswehr this year, was motivated by the prevailing security climate. He expressed a desire to help in the protection of peace and democracy should the worst-case scenario unfold. For him, joining the army was a way of making a contribution to the community. He also articulated a belief in the military's deterrent power, suggesting that a strong army makes it less likely that potential adversaries would even contemplate an attack, thereby preserving peace through strength.

Official Reassurance from the Top

Boris Pistorius, the Defence Minister, has actively sought to allay public fears surrounding the new military plan. He has offered reassurances to the German people, and has stated that despite the changes, there was no need for worry or apprehension. Pistorius argues that a stronger, more capable military is, in fact, the surest path to peace. His message frames the buildup not as an act of aggression but as a necessary defensive measure designed to prevent conflict. This public relations effort aims to build a broader societal consensus for the government's new defence posture.

Deterrence as the Core Strategy

The core of the government's argument, as articulated by Boris Pistorius, is the principle of deterrence. He contends that the more effective the nation's military is at defending the country, the lower the probability that it will ever be drawn into a conflict. This logic posits that strength and readiness, achieved through better equipment, intensive training, and increased personnel, send a clear message to potential aggressors that the costs of an attack would be unacceptably high. The ultimate goal of the military expansion, therefore, is not to wage war but to prevent it from ever happening.

The Post-Cold War 'Peace Dividend' Ends

Germany's defence spending saw a dramatic decline following the Cold War's conclusion, as the nation and its allies reaped a so-called "peace dividend." This period of reduced military investment was accompanied by the suspension of conscription in 2011. For decades, a deep-seated reluctance to project military power defined its foreign policy. However, Russia's comprehensive military campaign in Ukraine during 2022 upended this reality. The guiding rule for the country's defence, as declared by Friedrich Merz, the Chancellor, must now be an "all it takes" approach, marking a definitive end to an era of military austerity.

Pressure from Across the Atlantic

The push for European nations to increase their military investment has also been a consistent theme from Washington. Encouragement from the White House under President Donald Trump, in particular, has urged NATO countries across Europe to significantly hike their defence spending to meet alliance commitments. This transatlantic dynamic has added another layer of urgency to Germany's rearmament plans. Berlin's decision to bolster its military serves not only to counter direct threats but also to demonstrate its reliability as a key NATO ally, addressing long-standing American complaints about burden-sharing.

An Industrial Boom for Defence

The continent-wide move to re-arm has resulted in a significant financial windfall for defence companies like Rheinmetall. Armin Papperger, the chief executive, acknowledged this reality, stating plainly that the company is making significant profits due to the huge demand for military hardware. This industrial boom is a direct consequence of the changed geopolitical climate. As governments rush to modernise and expand their arsenals, the order books of arms manufacturers are swelling. This surge in revenue is enabling companies to invest in new technologies and expand production capacity.

A Modern Military for a New Age

The vision for the expanded Bundeswehr extends beyond mere numbers. Armin Papperger detailed the multifaceted nature of the required military buildup. He stressed the need for strength in both vehicles and ammunition and for Germany to develop its own independent satellite competencies. Furthermore, he highlighted a greater focus on electronic systems and AI compared to the past. This focus indicates that Germany is not simply rebuilding its old army but is striving to create a technologically superior, 21st-century fighting force capable of operating effectively in a highly complex and digitised battlespace.

Personal Security in Tense Times

The high-stakes environment of European rearmament carries personal risks for key industry figures. A report originating from the US a year ago alleged that the Rheinmetall executive had been the subject of a Russian plot on his life. While official verification was not provided at that moment, it highlights the tense atmosphere in which the defence industry now operates. When asked about the report, Armin Papperger declined to be drawn into specifics, offering only a brief and measured response. He conveyed that he felt both well and secure, communicating a sense of personal resolve amidst the geopolitical turbulence.

Defining an Unsettled Era

When questioned on his perception of Europe's current conflict status, whether cold or hybrid, Armin Papperger chose his words carefully, avoiding a specific label. His response captured the ambiguity and peril of the current moment. He remarked that regardless of the terminology used, the continent is not experiencing a period of peace. This succinct assessment encapsulates the prevailing mood across Europe. The era of post-Cold War stability has decisively ended, replaced by a period of profound uncertainty and heightened risk that is forcing nations like Germany to fundamentally rethink their security approach.