Pronatalist Policies and Their Impact

Anxious Futures: Inside America's Growing Pronatalist Movement

A gathering in Austin, Texas, highlighted a movement gaining traction. Inside a hotel conference room in March, the limited female presence underscored a shared conviction: society needs to reimagine its perception of motherhood. Amanda Bradford, creator of the dating app The League, addressed a room filled mostly with men. She expressed confidence in the possibility of reversing declining birth rates. Despite the unusual audience composition for a discussion ostensibly centred on female biology and choices, the core concern united everyone present: people are not having enough babies.

Falling Birth Rates Spark Concern

Approximately 200 individuals convened for the second Natal Conference. They represented a diverse mix, from devout conservatives and Silicon Valley innovators to members of large families and those simply curious. Attendees gathered amidst the exhibits of the Bullock Texas State History Museum for the Friday welcome reception. Discussions quickly centred on how to motivate Americans, particularly women, towards larger families. The low US birth rate provides the backdrop for these anxieties. Recent figures show the total fertility rate (TFR) hovering significantly below the replacement level, the rate needed for a generation to replace itself. The TFR stood at 1.62 births per woman in 2023, continuing a decades-long decline from the replacement level of approximately 2.1. Provisional data for 2023 showed 3.59 million births, a 2% drop from 2022, translating to a general fertility rate of 54.4 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44, the lowest ever recorded.

The Rise of Pronatalism

This "baby bust" fuels the pronatalist movement. Pronatalism promotes human reproduction and advocates for higher birth rates as a societal goal. The movement argues falling birth rates risk economic stagnation, unsustainable social security systems due to ageing populations, and even civilisational decline. Supporters often point to the economic model's reliance on population growth. The share of countries implementing pronatalist policies, often involving financial incentives like baby bonuses or tax breaks, grew significantly between 2005 and 2019. This reflects a growing global concern, although critics argue financial incentives alone are insufficient, highlighting the need for better work-family balance and supportive cultural values.

A Diverse Coalition

The American pronatalist coalition leans predominantly rightward. It includes traditionalists championing the nuclear family structure alongside technology figures worried about underpopulation and its economic consequences. Prominent voices include tech billionaire Elon Musk, father to at least twelve children, who has repeatedly warned that falling birth rates pose a "much bigger risk to civilisation than global warming". Vice President J.D. Vance, another key figure, openly stated his desire for "more babies in the United States of America" as a reason for opposing abortion. Former President Donald Trump has also embraced the cause, declaring "I want a baby boom". Conservative commentator Kevin Dolan organised the first Natal Conference in December 2023, reportedly spurred by concerns about societal decline.

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Gender Imbalance at the Forefront

The Austin conference highlighted a significant gender disparity. One 31-year-old attendee worried about the scarcity of single women present. Another participant noted the event's overwhelming male majority. Economist Bryan Caplan, a father of four, joked about expecting more women. He explained several female speakers had withdrawn due to pregnancy or childcare needs. Ben Ogilvie, a law student attending alone, suggested the imbalance stemmed from many pronatalist women being actively engaged in raising the families the movement champions. This observation underscores a central tension: while the movement's goal requires female participation, its events struggle to attract substantial numbers of women, potentially reflecting differing priorities or discomfort with the movement's framing.

Seeking a New Narrative for Motherhood

Despite the male-dominated setting, the importance of women's choices remained a central theme. Clara Chan, who travelled from Utah, stressed the need for women to embrace motherhood, which she views as a vital societal role. Discussions touched upon the challenges faced by women, including the isolation experienced by new mothers and the societal scrutiny directed at those choosing larger families. Attendees agreed on the necessity of shifting the cultural conversation around parenthood. They see positive portrayals of family life as crucial for supporting both current parents and women contemplating motherhood. Negative career perceptions associated with large families were identified by a 37-year-old mother of five from Dallas as a threat to society itself.

Connecting Mothers and Aspirations

Among the female attendees was a 33-year-old raising four children near Salt Lake City. She sought connection beyond online interactions with Instagram mothers, hoping to find peers dedicated to ambitious home-based parenting. Another attendee, a 36-year-old Canadian mother of two, wished for more family-focused activities within neighbourhoods. A 31-year-old American expatriate in Hong Kong expressed her desire for four children without derailing her career – an aspiration she found lacking among the men she dated. These women represent a segment seeking community and validation for choices that run counter to prevailing social trends favouring smaller families and uninterrupted career paths.

Building Bridges Amidst Discomfort

Emma Brizius, a 37-year-old mother of five from the Dallas area, exemplified the dedication and the internal conflicts present. Attending the weekend conference required significant logistical planning for her family, including arranging care and travel with her youngest daughter, three-year-old Madeline. Raised with three siblings in Indiana, Ms Brizius always envisioned a large family. Early in her marriage, both she and her husband pursued demanding finance careers. Motherhood shifted her focus, but mindful of her great-grandmother living past 100, she looked towards a long future beyond intensive child-rearing. She aimed to build networks for mothers outside the traditional workforce who still harboured professional ambitions, exploring entrepreneurship or writing.

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Networking for 'Undercurrent'

Discovering the Natal Conference online felt like finding a community where her later-life commitment to a large family would be understood, not judged. At the Friday evening reception, Ms Brizius distributed leaflets promoting "Undercurrent," her initiative to connect ambitious stay-at-home mothers. The leaflets contained a QR code linking to an online sign-up form. Many men accepted the pamphlets, mentioning female relatives who might seek such a network. This highlighted both the perceived need for such support systems and the gendered communication patterns observed at the conference, where men often acted as intermediaries for women's interests.

Navigating Ideological Tensions

Ms Brizius seemed a natural fit for the pronatalist ethos in some ways. Actively involved in religious parenting groups and networks of stay-at-home mothers, she was familiar with discussions balancing family life and professional aspirations, and aware of demographic concerns about birth rates. However, she expressed unease about fully identifying with the movement due to the presence of controversial figures like Jack Posobiec, a prominent supporter of the previous president known for spreading disinformation online. The association with more extreme viewpoints and the sometimes vague, platitude-heavy rhetoric around population growth caused her discomfort, reflecting a broader tension within the movement between mainstream conservatives and more radical elements.

Unapologetic Advocacy for Home Parenting

Not all attendees shared Ms Brizius’s reservations. Some mothers enthusiastically embraced politicians promoting pro-family policies, even if government action lagged. Their focus often centred less on policies supporting work-life balance and more on celebrating and encouraging full-time, at-home mothering. Hannah Centers, a 41-year-old home-schooling mother of six from Tennessee, described facing local disapproval for having more than two children. Her advice was straightforward: those desiring children should pursue that goal vigorously and without apology. This perspective prioritises individual conviction and cultural validation for traditional roles over broader structural or policy changes.

Expert Concerns and Controversial Figures

Outside the main conference sessions, industry experts voiced worries. Demographers and economists discussed the movement's problematic connections and messaging. One significant point of controversy involves figures like Simone Collins, 37, and her husband Malcolm Collins, 38. This couple, hosts of the "Based Camp" podcast and founders of Pronatalist.org, have attracted criticism for views described as radical, including promoting a bespoke religion centred on procreation accountability. Their use of IVF and genetic screening for their own children, with Simone expecting their fifth, adds another layer to the debate. Association with online personalities like Raw Egg Nationalist, known for promoting fringe theories and creating content for hate groups, further fuels criticism.

The Specter of Eugenics

The connections to individuals espousing controversial racial or genetic ideas raise serious concerns. Critics link the pronatalist emphasis on "desirable" births, particularly within tech circles favouring genetic screening and enhancement, to historical eugenics movements. Lyman Stone, a forecaster specialising in demographics, expressed concern that pronatalist messaging was alienating potential mainstream allies. He noted that prominent conservatives and left-leaning figures with large families have hesitated to endorse the movement due to its association with radicals. The fear is that pronatalism could be perceived, rightly or wrongly, as advocating for discriminatory genetic policies, a comparison considered harmful given the historical weight of eugenics.

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Policy Debates: Support vs Coercion

Economist Catherine Pakaluk, herself a mother of eight and author of research on college-educated women with large families, distinguishes between supportive and coercive policies. Dr Pakaluk supports measures that ease the practical burdens for those choosing large families. However, she finds policies directly influencing household decisions problematic. The idea of governments setting birth rate targets or using financial penalties against those opting out of parenthood evokes comparisons to draconian historical measures. Research into the motivations of women who choose large families often finds deep religious conviction and a view of children as inherently valuable blessings, rather than simply responding to external incentives.

Searching for Like-Minded Partners

The conference also addressed the practical challenge of finding partners who share pronatalist values. A session titled "Strategies for Finding Your Pro-Natalist Partner" drew considerable interest, particularly from the predominantly male audience. Panelists, including Simone Collins and commentator Peachy Keenan, discussed the difficulties of modern dating. Ms Keenan, known for advocating traditional family structures and authoring parenting guides, probed the panelists on obstacles to forming lasting relationships. Sabba Manyara, a 31-year-old finance professional originally from Zimbabwe, cited geographic instability and demanding work schedules as barriers to settling down and starting a family.

Male Perspectives on Dating

Another panelist described encountering individuals seeking casual relationships rather than commitment on dating apps. The discussion shifted towards male experiences, with attendees like Stephen Ogilvie, the law student from the UK, raising concerns. Mr Ogilvie, raised in the Latter-day Saint faith, described difficulties connecting with women holding compatible values, recounting negative experiences dating individuals with progressive views found via social media or apps. He sought women who shared his intellectual interests and traditional relationship goals. The conversation highlighted a perceived mismatch between the desires of some pronatalist men and the values or priorities of women they encounter in the broader dating pool.

Dating Advice and Differing Priorities

Ms Keenan offered advice rooted in her own journey from holding more progressive views to embracing traditionalism after meeting her husband. She urged the men present to look beyond dating apps if their current strategies were failing, suggesting seeking partners in different environments. Ms Manyara interjected, suggesting that respecting women's educational and professional ambitions should also be a priority in dating discussions. Ms Keenan responded with a comment about the potential for intelligent offspring from such unions, subtly reinforcing the pronatalist focus on desirable traits in future generations. The exchange underscored the complex interplay of personal ambition, relationship goals, and ideological alignment within the movement.

Innovating the Matchmaking Process

A subsequent session featured Amanda Bradford, founder of The League, discussing how social networks could better serve those seeking large families. Ms Bradford launched The League in 2014, aiming to connect ambitious, educated professionals. The app uses social and professional network data for screening and presents users with a limited number of curated matches daily. One unconventional idea proposed during the conference suggested filtering potential matches through required donations to organisations aligned with a woman's values. Stephen Chilcote suggested this could align partners based on shared convictions, proposing donations to free-market think tanks as an example, contrasting it with organisations supporting LGBTQ+ causes he deemed incompatible with his own views.

Skepticism and Individual Choice

Despite the focus on matchmaking and promoting larger families, some attendees maintained a more critical distance. Rebecca Luttinen, a doctoral student researching statistical methods near San Antonio, expressed concern about "panic-inducing" narratives surrounding population decline. Her own research aims to support individuals who freely choose to start families, rather than promoting it as a societal imperative. While Ms Luttinen remained open to the idea of family herself, her current focus was on her doctoral work. She noted feeling somewhat out of place at the Austin conference, observing that few people asked about her personal feelings on reproduction amidst the strong focus on proactive partner-seeking.

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Contrasting Conferences, Shifting Focus

Two weeks later, attending a different event in Washington DC focused on the science of birth rates, Ms Luttinen observed a marked difference. That conference featured greater participation by female experts and a more academic tone. Reflecting on the Austin gathering, she felt the heavily male-dominated environment and its focus on influencing women's reproductive choices could be counterproductive. The contrast highlights the varied ways the issue of declining birth rates is being discussed – from the ideologically charged, activist-oriented approach of NatalCon to more data-driven, policy-focused discussions in academic and governmental circles, each grappling with the complex demographic shifts reshaping societies globally. The pronatalist movement, while growing, faces internal contradictions and external criticism as it seeks broader influence.