Progressive Britain Seeks New Path

Woke's Crossroads: Can Britain’s Progressive Movement Survive the Backlash?

A sculpture of a man, his features smeared with red paint, rests within a glass enclosure that resembles a coffin. A looping video screen positioned above it replays the events of a June afternoon in 2020. The footage captures a spirited group pulling down the monument of Edward Colston, a 17th-century slave merchant, from its base near the Bristol harbour and pushing it into the river with celebration.

Now, half a decade later, the statue, still marked with graffiti, is a centerpiece at the far end of a protest exhibit inside Bristol's M Shed museum. It is surrounded by a cluster of signs bearing messages like “to be silent is to be violent” and “bigotry is also a deadly pandemic.” The words recall the intense fervor of a season that already feels like a distant memory, a time when public anger spilled onto the avenues but failed to bring about permanent transformation.

The Symbol and the Slogan

For many, the toppling of the Edward Colston statue was a moment of release and historical reckoning, a tangible renunciation of a legacy founded on human suffering. The lively footage of demonstrators removing the bronze effigy from its stand presented a potent and deeply felt defiance of authority. Inside the M Shed museum, where the sculpture now resides, it stands as a testament not only to Colston but also to the demonstration that brought it down. The nearby signs, abandoned by those who had gathered, capture the raw energy of that summer. They speak a language of urgency and radical conviction. Yet, that powerful momentum appears to have dissipated, leaving a complex legacy and a sense that a historic opportunity for profound change was somehow missed.

Defining an Elusive Term

To better understand public perception of the notoriously flexible term “woke,” a poll was conducted in 2022. Participants were questioned on the term’s relevance to several modern issues. The strongest association was with the removal of historical monuments connected to the slave trade, such as the one dedicated to Colston. This blend of assertive protest aimed at a deeply symbolic figure and re-evaluating the past with a contemporary social justice outlook resulted in 61% of people labelling it as woke. While some may have seen this as praise, the word—originally taken from a phrase used by Black Americans to warn about the dangers of racial aggression—had already transformed into an insult.

The Inevitable Counter-Current?

A narrative quickly formed that woke activism ultimately collapsed under its own weight. Critics claimed it became so shrill and sanctimonious that a backlash was inevitable. This sentiment grew as Donald Trump’s political influence continued to loom large across the Atlantic. Initially, Britain, with its newly elected Labour government, appeared immune to these dominant political currents. As businesses in the United States hurried to abandon their diversity initiatives, a mere 11% of UK companies intended to follow suit. But the tide soon turned. Recent polling highlights a historically fragmented electorate, with the Labour and Conservative parties struggling to secure a majority. This fragmentation has created space for parties like Reform UK, which campaigns aggressively against what it calls “net zero wokery.”

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A Shifting Political Landscape

The political mainstream has clearly adapted to this new climate. The Prime Minister, who half a decade earlier knelt in solidarity with Black Lives Matter and shared a post declaring that trans rights were human rights, today presides over an administration with a tougher stance on immigration and a more cautious approach to social issues. His administration has faced criticism for a perceived lack of radicalism, with some commentators arguing it is unwilling to tackle major issues like inequality or fully fund public services. Recent policies, including significant welfare cuts aimed at saving billions, have sparked concern among his own MPs and fuelled accusations that the government is increasing child poverty to fund other priorities like military spending. This pivot reflects a strategic decision to appeal to a public mood that has soured on the perceived excesses of progressive activism.

A Critique from the Left

The concept of “woke” also faces criticism from within the radical left, where some argue its emphasis on personal identities erodes conventional, class-focused group action. A particular event highlights this conflict. When Extinction Rebellion co-founder Roger Hallam was asked at a gathering what the left was doing incorrectly, his profane response created a significant commotion. One activist expressed fear over the perceived "white anger" present, while another asserted that he had introduced "violence" to the setting. This left observers to question how individuals unable to manage a blunt activist could possibly spearhead a major societal shift. This anecdote illustrates a deep fracture within progressive circles over tactics, tone, and the very nature of political struggle.

The Perils of Performative Protest

The term “woke” has become a stand-in for a specific mode of digital activism. This method is frequently characterized by its tendency to label adversaries as fundamentally wicked, participate in a contest of victimhood, and prioritize theatrical displays over tangible results. Following the acquittal of four white demonstrators on charges related to the Colston statue, Bristol’s mayor at the time, Marvin Rees, asked if four Black defendants would have been treated similarly. He contended that unless they are paired with concrete measures, symbolic gestures can end up serving the immediate emotional gratification of advantaged people instead of altering the financial reality for marginalized groups. This critique highlights the central tension between symbolic victories and the hard, unglamorous work of achieving tangible social and economic justice.

The Progressive Activist Bubble

Research into the UK's political tribes has identified a demographic often labelled "Progressive Activists." This demographic, which closely mirrors what some political figures have called the “tofu-eating wokerati,” constitutes roughly ten percent of the public. Yet, their influence on national discourse is disproportionately large. They tend to have high levels of education, are deeply involved in politics, and are four times more probable than the average citizen to share political views on the internet. They form the core of many forward-thinking movements and civic groups, motivated by a sincere wish to improve society.

An Echo Chamber of Conviction

Research suggests Progressive Activists are more distant from prevailing public sentiment than they perceive. This is the sole demographic where most members feel immigration ought to be higher, and that safeguarding individuals from hateful expression is more important than upholding freedom of expression. They are also the demographic most inclined to feel that societal progress sometimes necessitates violating laws. While being an outlier does not automatically mean they are incorrect, it carries significant strategic consequences. Data from polling reveals they misjudge the level of public support for their central convictions by two to three times, which causes them to dedicate insufficient effort to convincing others.

The Purity Test Problem

This gap is widened by an inclination toward ideological purity. Effective movements typically construct a wide foundation of support, but Progressive Activists frequently turn away allies who do not subscribe to their entire ideology. Polling data shows, for example, that more than one-fourth would decline to work with a person who supports Israel's right to exist, a position that most Britons hold. Their desire for large-scale, structural transformation can lead them to appear scornful of the smaller, sincere contributions of others. Additionally, they show an uncommon eagerness to point out the “errors” of others regarding diversity, a habit that different groups find off-putting and likely to create discomfort, which ultimately obstructs dialogue.

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The Language Barrier

The manner in which progressives communicate could be one reason why liberal political groups have faced electoral difficulties. Populist figures often employ plain, straightforward phrases such as "take back control." Conversely, progressive campaigners can prefer intricate, scholarly terms that demand intellectual gymnastics from the listener. A catchphrase like “global warming is racism” can seem like gibberish to someone not acquainted with the logic behind it, even if they concur with the basic idea. This has prompted suggestions that progressives need to better connect the concepts for the public using straightforward explanations, instead of writing off anyone who questions a new term as prejudiced.

The Class Divide in Discourse

This communication gap often aligns with a class distinction based on educational background. Campaigners who instruct their critics to “educate yourself” using vocabulary from university sociology courses may alienate the majority of British adults without a degree. A story from one political aide illustrates this point. He remembers fumbling with substitute words like “deprived” and “less affluent” rather than just saying “poor area,” which only made him sound odd to the person he was addressing. That memory resurfaced years later when he saw Keir Starmer have difficulty articulating how men could possess a cervix. In the effort to be perfectly correct, a natural connection was lost, and the message failed to land.

The Trans Rights Flashpoint

The debate over transgender rights serves as a powerful case study for these dynamics. Robert Wintemute, a professor of human rights law at King's College London, was previously a central figure in the movement for trans self-identification. His perspective changed following a classroom discussion in which a student appeared unwilling to acknowledge that, in legal terms, the rights of trans people do not take precedence over all others. After Wintemute started expressing these reservations openly, his former associates severed ties with him. A talk he was scheduled to deliver at McGill University in Montreal about the idea of decoupling LGB rights from T rights was met with intense demonstrations that ultimately led to its cancellation.

When Debate Is Shut Down

To a legal professional accustomed to scrutinizing claims, the "no debate" stance felt questionable, hinting that the opposing side's case might be flimsy if it could not withstand scrutiny. The McGill demonstrations, which included shouts that trans rights were not a topic for discussion and protesters using flour, had an unintended effect. The television appearances he made concerning the disturbance were seen by a much larger group of people than his talk would have reached. His opinions were not suppressed but instead magnified, and he felt motivated to reinforce his position. This episode illustrates how attempts to "cancel" dissenting voices can inadvertently give them a larger platform and entrench their positions.

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A Rapid Shift in Public Opinion

This personal evolution reflects a remarkably fast change in wider public sentiment. A cross-party Commons committee endorsed self-ID in 2016, a time when polls showed 58% of Britons were in favour of the ability to alter one's legal sex. By 2022, however, backing for this right had dropped by nearly half, and reported feelings of prejudice against trans individuals had almost doubled. This happened even while attitudes on different social matters grew more progressive. Newer polling reaffirms this pattern, revealing considerable opposition to trans women using female-only areas such as changing facilities and shelters for domestic abuse victims. Among the youth as well, backing for the legal change of gender has declined.

The Supreme Court's Bombshell Ruling

This change in attitudes led to a pivotal Supreme Court decision in April 2025. The court determined that "sex" within the Equality Act 2010 means biological sex alone. Therefore, a Gender Recognition Certificate (GRC) does not alter an individual's sex in the context of this Act. This judgment establishes a solid legal justification for single-sex areas, including hospital wards and shelters, to deny entry to trans women. The ruling was in line with the views of most people, as surveys indicated 59% of the British public supported the court's finding. Consequently, the Equality and Human Rights Commission is revising its guidelines, a move that will greatly affect public institutions like the NHS.

Stonewall's Strategic Recalibration

The LGBTQ+ rights charity Stonewall, historically one of Britain’s most successful campaign groups, appears to have misjudged the public mood. Celebrating what appeared to be a straightforward win regarding self-ID, the group took up a "trans women are women, get over it" posture. It declined to recognize any tension between the rights of trans people and the sex-based rights of women. This rigid stance provided no space for dialogue with individuals who held reservations. Simon Blake, the new CEO with extensive campaigning experience, is now indicating a shift back to a more convincing and incremental method. He has stressed that creating change happens through conversation and that one does not gain public support by merely instructing people to use a search engine.

Learning from the Climate Movement

Progressive groups seeking a path forward could take cues from environmental activists. Joss Garman, who founded the protest group Plane Stupid and is now the Executive Director of the European Climate Foundation, feels the necessity for startling public demonstrations is fading. After years of orchestrating disruptive events like runway sit-ins, his viewpoint has changed. The main problem, he contends, has shifted from raising awareness to fostering confidence in the ability of government and industry to provide practical solutions. His work now centers on creating responses to climate issues that also bolster economic growth and energy independence, showing a more practical mindset.

Beyond Shock Tactics

Although disruptive organizations such as Just Stop Oil have captured the media spotlight, their public perception is largely unfavorable. Polling in 2023 showed that just 17% of people held a positive opinion of the group. Studies indicate that while their methods may increase awareness of environmental problems, their impact on policy is uncertain and could even be divisive. The harsh legal penalties now being handed down to activists, which include long prison terms, have increased the risks. This has led to profound discussions inside the environmental movement regarding its future direction, with a growing consensus that confrontational methods can overshadow the core message.

The Anatomy of a Good Protest

Experiments analysing public reaction to protest videos have shown that not all protests are created equal. For example, watching demonstrators splash soup on a Van Gogh or obstruct traffic made observers more opposed to the movement. In contrast, footage of campaigners spraying paint on a corporate office—a distinct "villain"—or participating in a festive demonstration slightly increased viewer support. The lesson was straightforward: successful demonstrations require a target that is simple to comprehend and must not disrupt the daily routines of regular citizens simply trying to get to work or go about their lives.

The Power of Coalition

Environmental activists have also come to understand the value of creating wide-ranging partnerships to endure changes in the political climate. Following David Cameron’s 2013 move to abandon environmental policies, the climate movement purposefully sought to collaborate with Conservatives, agricultural groups, and labor organizations. This does not necessarily equate to compromising principles. Sadiq Khan, the Mayor of London, won a decisive re-election after widening his Ulez clean-air area, despite strong resistance. This suggests that environmental advocates can take chances when they have confidence in a solid base of public backing. The crucial element is a continuous commitment to cultivating that support.

A Path to Renewal

To recover their momentum, progressive groups must pay attention to the cautionary signals. This involves adapting, enduring, and learning from experience. It calls for a move away from ideological rigidity toward persuasion, from technical terms to plain speech, and from acting alone to forming alliances. The current climate offers an opportunity to separate effective strategies from ineffective ones. Widespread agreement on the importance of diversity and equality remains, but the methods require adjustment. The original meaning of being woke was, in essence, to be watchful. Maybe that watchfulness should now be directed internally, prompting a thorough review of progressivism’s own tactics and beliefs to create a viable path ahead in a changed world.