Philippines Power Clash And Duterte Marcos

The Unravelling of a Strongman: Rodrigo Duterte’s Dramatic Arrest

Rodrigo Duterte, the fiery former Philippine president who once promised to “cleanse” his nation through brutal anti-drug campaigns, faced an ignominious twist just months before his 80th birthday. On 22 April 2024, authorities detained him at Manila’s Ninoy Aquino International Airport upon his return from Hong Kong, where he had courted support for political allies ahead of mid-term elections. Clad in a loose polo shirt and leaning heavily on a cane, the once-unassailable leader appeared visibly weakened as officers escorted him to a nearby airbase. Within hours, a private jet whisked him toward The Hague, where the International Criminal Court (ICC) seeks to prosecute him for alleged crimes against humanity.

The arrest stunned observers, not least because Duterte’s allies had long dismissed the ICC’s authority. After all, in March 2019, he withdrew the Philippines from the court’s jurisdiction, dismissing its prosecutors as “bullies” meddling in domestic affairs. Yet the ICC’s pre-2019 mandate allowed it to pursue cases linked to his presidency, which began in June 2016. By September 2021, the court’s chief prosecutor, Karim Khan, greenlit a formal investigation into over 6,000 alleged extrajudicial killings tied to Duterte’s “war on drugs.” Human Rights Watch estimates the death toll could exceed 30,000, including victims from his earlier tenure as Davao City mayor (1988–1998; 2001–2010; 2013–2016).

A Faustian Pact: The Marcos-Duterte Alliance

To grasp Duterte’s downfall, one must first untangle his fraught alliance with the Marcos dynasty. During his presidency, Duterte cultivated ties with the children of Ferdinand Marcos Sr., the dictator ousted in 1986 after two decades of martial law and embezzlement. The Marcos family, eager to rehabilitate its image, saw an opportunity in Duterte’s populist appeal. Similarly, Duterte recognised their vast resources and political machinery as assets for his daughter, Sara Duterte-Carpio, then mayor of Davao.

Ahead of the May 2022 elections, the two clans brokered a deal. Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., who lost the 2016 vice-presidential race by a razor-thin margin, would run for president with Sara as his deputy. In exchange, the Marcos camp would back Sara’s 2028 presidential bid. The strategy proved wildly successful: Marcos Jr. secured 58.7% of the vote, the largest mandate since his father’s era, while Sara won 61.5% in the vice-presidential race. Pollsters attributed their victory to a nostalgia-driven rebranding of the Marcos legacy and Duterte’s enduring support among working-class voters.

Initially, the partnership seemed unshakeable. Marcos Jr. publicly praised Duterte’s “strong leadership,” while Sara downplayed her father’s controversies. Behind the scenes, however, tensions simmered. Sara reportedly demanded control of the defence ministry, a pivotal role given escalating South China Sea disputes. Instead, Marcos Jr. appointed her education secretary, a move interpreted as sidelining her influence. Meanwhile, the new president began reversing Duterte’s policies, restoring ties with the US and adopting a firmer stance against Chinese maritime incursions.

Image Credit - BBC

Cracks in the Coalition: Power Struggles and Betrayal

The rift widened as both clans jockeyed for dominance. Marcos Jr., wary of Duterte’s lingering sway, distanced himself from his predecessor’s incendiary rhetoric. Gone were the threats to “slaughter” drug dealers; instead, the new administration emphasised economic reforms and diplomatic pragmatism. This pivot alienated Duterte loyalists, who accused Marcos Jr. of betraying their shared base.

Matters came to a head in October 2023, when Sara Duterte-Carpio allegedly claimed during a private meeting that she had hired assassins to target Marcos Jr. if her safety were compromised. Though she later dismissed the remarks as “dark humour,” the incident fuelled speculation of a coup plot. By December 2023, Marcos-aligned lawmakers in the House of Representatives filed impeachment charges against Sara, citing “abuse of authority” and “inciting violence.” The Senate trial, set for late 2024, could disqualify her from public office, effectively ending her presidential ambitions.

Duterte, meanwhile, faced his own legal peril. Despite earlier assurances from Marcos Jr. that the government would “not lift a finger” to assist the ICC, the president quietly authorised co-operation with Interpol, which issued a “red notice” for Duterte’s arrest. Critics argue the move was less about upholding international law and more about eliminating a rival. Political analyst Richard Heydarian notes, “Marcos Jr. has weaponised the ICC to decapitate the Duterte faction while portraying himself as a rule-of-law champion.”

Public Backlash and Regional Repercussions

The arrest has sparked fierce debate. Pro-Duterte groups, including the influential Mayor Rodrigo Roa Duterte-National Executive Coordinating Committee (MRRD-NECC), have vowed mass protests, recalling the “People Power” uprisings that toppled Marcos Sr. in 1986. Sara Duterte-Carpio condemned her father’s extradition as a “surrender to colonialist powers,” tapping into anti-Western sentiment still prevalent in provinces.

Internationally, reactions remain mixed. China, which clashed with the Marcos administration over Scarborough Shoal, warned against “politicising judicial processes”—a nod to Beijing’s own rejection of the ICC. Conversely, the US State Department praised the arrest as a “step toward accountability,” though Washington itself refuses to recognise the court’s authority over American citizens.

For the ICC, Duterte’s prosecution represents a rare victory. Since its 2002 inception, the court has secured just 10 convictions, all against African leaders. High-profile failures, such as the collapsed case against Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, have eroded its credibility. Convicting Duterte could rejuvenate its image, yet the process risks inflaming domestic divisions. As University of the Philippines professor Antonio Contreras warns, “This isn’t just a legal battle; it’s a proxy war between two dynasties fighting for survival.”

The Unravelling of a Strongman: Rodrigo Duterte’s Dramatic Arrest

Rodrigo Duterte, the fiery former Philippine president who once promised to “cleanse” his nation through brutal anti-drug campaigns, faced an ignominious twist just months before his 80th birthday. On 22 April 2024, authorities detained him at Manila’s Ninoy Aquino International Airport upon his return from Hong Kong, where he had courted support for political allies ahead of mid-term elections. Clad in a loose polo shirt and leaning heavily on a cane, the once-unassailable leader appeared visibly weakened as officers escorted him to a nearby airbase. Within hours, a private jet whisked him toward The Hague, where the International Criminal Court (ICC) seeks to prosecute him for alleged crimes against humanity.

The arrest stunned observers, not least because Duterte’s allies had long dismissed the ICC’s authority. After all, in March 2019, he withdrew the Philippines from the court’s jurisdiction, dismissing its prosecutors as “bullies” meddling in domestic affairs. Yet the ICC’s pre-2019 mandate allowed it to pursue cases linked to his presidency, which began in June 2016. By September 2021, the court’s chief prosecutor, Karim Khan, greenlit a formal investigation into over 6,000 alleged extrajudicial killings tied to Duterte’s “war on drugs.” Human Rights Watch estimates the death toll could exceed 30,000, including victims from his earlier tenure as Davao City mayor (1988–1998; 2001–2010; 2013–2016).

Image Credit - aL Jazeera

A Faustian Pact: The Marcos-Duterte Alliance

To grasp Duterte’s downfall, one must first untangle his fraught alliance with the Marcos dynasty. During his presidency, Duterte cultivated ties with the children of Ferdinand Marcos Sr., the dictator ousted in 1986 after two decades of martial law and embezzlement. The Marcos family, eager to rehabilitate its image, saw an opportunity in Duterte’s populist appeal. Similarly, Duterte recognised their vast resources and political machinery as assets for his daughter, Sara Duterte-Carpio, then mayor of Davao.

Ahead of the May 2022 elections, the two clans brokered a deal. Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., who lost the 2016 vice-presidential race by a razor-thin margin, would run for president with Sara as his deputy. In exchange, the Marcos camp would back Sara’s 2028 presidential bid. The strategy proved wildly successful: Marcos Jr. secured 58.7% of the vote, the largest mandate since his father’s era, while Sara won 61.5% in the vice-presidential race. Pollsters attributed their victory to a nostalgia-driven rebranding of the Marcos legacy and Duterte’s enduring support among working-class voters.

The partnership seemed unshakeable. Marcos Jr. publicly praised Duterte’s “strong leadership,” while Sara downplayed her father’s controversies. Behind the scenes, however, tensions simmered. Sara reportedly demanded control of the defence ministry, a pivotal role given escalating South China Sea disputes. Instead, Marcos Jr. appointed her education secretary, a move interpreted as sidelining her influence. Meanwhile, the new president began reversing Duterte’s policies, restoring ties with the US and adopting a firmer stance against Chinese maritime incursions.

Cracks in the Coalition: Power Struggles and Betrayal

The rift widened as both clans jockeyed for dominance. Marcos Jr., wary of Duterte’s lingering sway, distanced himself from his predecessor’s incendiary rhetoric. Gone were the threats to “slaughter” drug dealers; instead, the new administration emphasised economic reforms and diplomatic pragmatism. This pivot alienated Duterte loyalists, who accused Marcos Jr. of betraying their shared base.

Matters came to a head in October 2023, when Sara Duterte-Carpio allegedly claimed during a private meeting that she had hired assassins to target Marcos Jr. if her safety were compromised. Though she later dismissed the remarks as “dark humour,” the incident fuelled speculation of a coup plot. By December 2023, Marcos-aligned lawmakers in the House of Representatives filed impeachment charges against Sara, citing “abuse of authority” and “inciting violence.” The Senate trial, set for late 2024, could disqualify her from public office, effectively ending her presidential ambitions.

Duterte, meanwhile, faced his own legal peril. Despite earlier assurances from Marcos Jr. that the government would “not lift a finger” to assist the ICC, the president quietly authorised co-operation with Interpol, which issued a “red notice” for Duterte’s arrest. Critics argue the move was less about upholding international law and more about eliminating a rival. Political analyst Richard Heydarian notes, “Marcos Jr. has weaponised the ICC to decapitate the Duterte faction while portraying himself as a rule-of-law champion.”

Public Backlash and Regional Repercussions

The arrest has sparked fierce debate. Pro-Duterte groups, including the influential Mayor Rodrigo Roa Duterte-National Executive Coordinating Committee (MRRD-NECC), have vowed mass protests, recalling the “People Power” uprisings that toppled Marcos Sr. in 1986. Sara Duterte-Carpio condemned her father’s extradition as a “surrender to colonialist powers,” tapping into anti-Western sentiment still prevalent in provinces.

Internationally, reactions remain mixed. China, which clashed with the Marcos administration over Scarborough Shoal, warned against “politicising judicial processes”—a nod to Beijing’s own rejection of the ICC. Conversely, the US State Department praised the arrest as a “step toward accountability,” though Washington itself refuses to recognise the court’s authority over American citizens.

For the ICC, Duterte’s prosecution represents a rare victory. Since its 2002 inception, the court has secured just 10 convictions, all against African leaders. High-profile failures, such as the collapsed case against Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, have eroded its credibility. Convicting Duterte could rejuvenate its image, yet the process risks inflaming domestic divisions. As University of the Philippines professor Antonio Contreras warns, “This isn’t just a legal battle; it’s a proxy war between two dynasties fighting for survival.”

The ICC’s High-Stakes Gamble: Duterte’s Trial Unfolds

As Duterte’s trial commenced in The Hague on 15 June 2024, the courtroom became a global spectacle. Prosecutors opened with harrowing testimonies from survivors of his anti-drug campaigns, including a mother whose three sons died in a single 2016 police operation. Forensic experts presented ballistic reports linking bullet casings to state-issued firearms, while text messages between Duterte and senior officials revealed explicit orders to “kill all suspects who resist.” Defence lawyers countered by questioning the ICC’s jurisdiction, arguing that local courts had already acquitted 95% of officers investigated for drug-war killings.

The trial’s outcome remains uncertain. Legal scholars note that the ICC’s conviction rate for heads of state sits at just 12%, with cases often collapsing over procedural technicalities. Meanwhile, Duterte’s health complicates proceedings. Hospitalised twice since his arrest for complications related to myasthenia gravis, a chronic autoimmune condition, he now attends hearings via video link from a Dutch medical facility. “This isn’t justice; it’s a political lynching,” his daughter Sara declared during a 25 June 2024 rally in Cebu, where 20,000 supporters waved banners reading “Free Digong.”

Mid-Term Elections: A Litmus Test for Political Dynasties

The 12 May 2024 mid-term elections offered the clearest gauge of public sentiment since Duterte’s arrest. Marcos Jr.’s coalition secured 60% of Senate seats, tightening his grip on legislative power. Conversely, Sara Duterte-Carpio’s Hugpong ng Pagbabago party lost ground, winning just 22% of mayoral races outside Mindanao. Analysts attribute the shift to urban voters prioritising economic stability over loyalty to political clans. “The Marcos brand is now synonymous with recovery,” remarked pollster Ana Tabunda, citing a 15-point surge in approval ratings for the president since January 2024.

Yet the results also exposed vulnerabilities. In Duterte’s hometown of Davao, independent candidate Paolo Duterte—Rodrigo’s son—won the mayoral race with 89% of the vote, signalling enduring regional allegiance. Similarly, voter turnout dipped to 67%, the lowest since 2010, reflecting widespread disillusionment. “Why choose between two dynasties?” asked Manila street vendor Lito Morales. “They’re all the same—rich families playing musical chairs with power.”

Regional Ripples: ASEAN and Global Reactions

The geopolitical fallout from Duterte’s prosecution has reverberated across Southeast Asia. ASEAN leaders, wary of setting a precedent for foreign intervention, issued a tepid statement on 30 May 2024 urging “respect for national sovereignty.” Behind closed doors, however, Malaysia and Indonesia reportedly lobbied the ICC to avoid antagonising China, which bankrolls infrastructure projects across the region.

China itself has walked a tightrope. While state media condemns the trial as “neo-colonial overreach,” Beijing quietly pressured Marcos Jr. to soften his stance on South China Sea disputes. The balancing act paid off: in July 2024, China resumed imports of Philippine bananas and pineapples, ending a six-month embargo imposed after a naval clash near Second Thomas Shoal.

The US, meanwhile, capitalised on the crisis to deepen military ties. During a 10 July 2024 visit to Manila, Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced $2.1 billion (£1.6 billion) in funding for naval bases near Taiwan and the Spratly Islands. The move drew ire from Beijing but bolstered Marcos Jr.’s image as a defender of national sovereignty.

Legacy and Lessons: The Future of Philippine Democracy

The Duterte-Marcos saga underscores the corrosive influence of dynastic politics in the Philippines, where 70% of congress members hail from established political families. Reformists argue the crisis could catalyse change, pointing to a 40% increase in youth voter registration since 2022. Grassroots movements like #NotOurDynasties, which mobilised 100,000 volunteers for the mid-terms, aim to field independent candidates in 2028.

Constitutional amendments proposed in August 2024 seek to curb dynastic power, including term limits for local officials and stricter anti-nepotism laws. Yet sceptics doubt their passage. “The same families controlling Congress won’t vote themselves out of power,” said University of Manila professor Leonor Briones.

For now, the ICC trial grinds on, with a verdict expected by late 2025. Whether Duterte’s prosecution delivers justice or deepens division hinges on Marcos Jr.’s next moves. As historian Ambeth Ocampo observes, “This isn’t just about one man’s crimes. It’s about whether the Philippines can escape its cycle of strongmen and dynasties—or if it’s doomed to repeat history.”