Missile Challenge: Iran’s Ballistic Ambitions

The Precision Spear: How Israel's Advanced Military Confronts a Resurgent Iran

A confrontation between Israel and Iran presents a study in contrasts. On paper, the disparity seems immense, setting a country of nine million inhabitants against a Middle Eastern titan with 88 million residents. However, this simple demographic comparison masks a more complex reality. Israel possesses one of the globe's most sophisticated and formidable military forces. Its arsenal, with weaponry sourced predominantly from America, provides a decisive technological advantage. This advanced capability allows Israel to project power and challenge a numerically superior adversary, turning any potential conflict into a contest between technological prowess and sheer scale. The core of this dynamic revolves around air power, missile defence, and the shadowy world of intelligence operations.

A Tale of Two Militaries

The strategic postures of Israel and Iran are shaped by deeply contrasting circumstances. Israel, a compact nation, invests in a technologically superior, agile military designed for rapid, decisive action. Iran, a vast country with a substantially greater population, relies on strategic depth and a massive conventional force. According to 2025 figures, Iran fields approximately 610,000 active military personnel, with another 350,000 in reserve. In contrast, Israel maintains around 169,500 active personnel but can quickly mobilise a substantial 465,000 reservists, demonstrating a high state of readiness. This fundamental difference dictates their respective doctrines: Israel's focus on a qualitative edge versus Iran's emphasis on quantitative strength.

The American Arsenal

America is the principal architect of Israel's technological superiority. Through substantial annual military aid, Israel has procured a fleet of advanced American-made aircraft. This includes 39 of the F-35 "Adir" stealth fighters, a platform uniquely modified for Israeli requirements. These are complemented by dozens of F-15 and F-16 jets, which form the backbone of the Israeli Air Force (IAF). This air power is armed with a vast array of precision-guided munitions, also supplied by the US. These smart bombs and standoff weapons allow Israeli pilots to strike targets with remarkable accuracy from distances that minimise risk.

Dominance in the Skies

Israel's advantage extends beyond the airframes themselves. The IAF integrates cutting-edge avionics, electronic warfare systems, and superior intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities. The Israeli F-35I "Adir" variant features unique Israeli technology, including a specialised electronic warfare suite and the capacity to carry proprietary munitions. This allows Israeli forces to operate effectively within contested airspace. The combination of stealth, advanced sensors, and data-linking turns each aircraft into a node in a wider network, providing pilots with unparalleled situational awareness and the capacity to neutralise threats before they emerge.

Iran’s Doctrine of Asymmetric Defence

Facing this technological powerhouse, Iran has developed a strategy of asymmetric warfare. It leverages its vast territory, which provides strategic depth, and its large population for a substantial military force. While its conventional air force is composed of older, less advanced aircraft, Iran has invested heavily in other areas. It has cultivated the most substantial and varied collection of ballistic missiles throughout the Middle East as a primary deterrent and strike capability. Furthermore, Iran sponsors a network of proxy forces across the region, creating a multi-front threat to complicate Israeli military planning and disperse its resources.

Asserting Dominance Over Tehran

Israel has announced its control of the airspace above the Iranian capital. In the initial phases of a potential conflict, this has been a starkly one-sided affair. There has been little indication that Iran's fleet of older fighter jets, many of which are older Russian models, would leave the ground to challenge the IAF. This has allowed Israeli pilots to operate with a degree of impunity. They have been able to deploy guided munitions from relatively close distances, displaying minimal apprehension about the possibility of being intercepted and shot down by enemy aircraft or ground-based defences.

Neutralising Ground-Based Threats

A key element of Israel's strategy involved the pre-emptive degradation of Iran's air defence network. In earlier strikes, the IAF employed long-range armaments. These "standoff" munitions aimed to destroy critical components of Iran's S-300 missile systems. These operations were designed to create safe corridors for subsequent, closer-range sorties. In more recent actions, Israeli aircraft have continued to systematically dismantle the network, targeting ground-based radar installations and missile launchers. This systematic approach effectively blinded and disarmed much of Iran's ability to contest its own airspace, paving the way for wider air operations.

Image Credit - IISS

The Ageing Iranian Fleet

Iran's air force is a significant vulnerability. Its fleet is a patchwork of older American jets from before the 1979 revolution, alongside Russian and Chinese models that have suffered from a lack of maintenance and upgrades. Decades of stringent Western sanctions have made acquiring modern aircraft or even the necessary spare parts exceptionally difficult for Iran's government. This technological gap means that in a direct confrontation, Iran's pilots would be at a severe disadvantage against the IAF's modern, well-maintained, and technologically superior platforms.

The Covert Intelligence War

The air campaign was preceded by a sophisticated intelligence war. Well before the first bombs fell, operatives from Mossad, Israel's foreign intelligence agency, were active inside Iran. Their mission was to prepare the ground and disrupt Iran's ability to respond effectively. These agents arranged for small drones to be brought into Iran, which were then used to execute precise strikes against surviving anti-air installations. These covert attacks, coupled with airstrikes that eliminated many senior figures in Iran's military command, significantly undermined Tehran's command and control structure, sowing confusion and hampering a coordinated defence.

The Ballistic Arsenal

Before any Israeli attacks commenced, America had already designated Iran as possessing the Middle East's most formidable collection of ballistic missiles. Estimates place the total number of missiles between 2,000 and 3,000, although some intelligence assessments suggest the figure is over 3,000. This diverse inventory includes short, medium, and long-range systems capable of reaching targets across the region. While Israeli strikes have successfully struck some of these missiles along with the facilities where they are made, the arsenal's sheer size ensures it remains a potent retaliatory tool for Tehran, representing its primary means of projecting power.

Penetrating the Multi-Layered Shield

Israel confronts this danger with a globally leading, multi-layered air defence network. This network includes the short-range Iron Dome, the mid-range David's Sling, and the long-range Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 interceptors. The Arrow system is specifically designed to engage ballistic missiles, including outside the Earth's atmosphere. Despite this advanced shield, which achieves a high success rate, Iran's leadership has succeeded in launching continuous volleys of projectiles toward Israeli territory. A percentage of these have managed to penetrate the defensive umbrella, demonstrating that no system is entirely foolproof against a saturation attack.

Degraded but Far From Destroyed

The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) have reported the destruction of roughly one-third of the surface-to-surface launchers belonging to Iran. This represents a significant blow to Iran's offensive capabilities, making it more difficult to sustain a high tempo of launches. However, it is essential to recognize that although Iran's missile capabilities are weakened, the program is far from dismantled. The majority of its arsenal remains intact. This missile force represents the most significant immediate military peril to Israeli population centres and critical infrastructure, forming the core of Iran's strategic deterrence.

The Lingering Short-Range Danger

While long-range ballistic missiles draw significant attention, Iran also maintains a large inventory of short-range air defence missiles. An analyst from the RUSI defence institute, Justin Bronk, has stated that even if Israel asserts control of the skies above Tehran, it still has not achieved total air dominance. This distinction is important. The continued presence of numerous, potentially mobile, short-range missile systems means that Israeli aircraft operating at lower altitudes still face a tangible threat. This residual danger forces the IAF to continue allocating resources to suppress these defences, complicating their broader mission.

The Axis of Resistance

For many years, Iran has invested heavily in building a network of allied militant groups throughout the region, often referred to as the "Axis of Resistance." This network includes Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the Lebanese group Hezbollah, various militias in Iraq and Syria, and the Houthi movement in Yemen. Iran furnishes these organizations with strategic guidance, advanced weaponry, and crucial technology. This strategy allows Tehran to challenge Israel and other regional adversaries indirectly, creating a persistent, low-level threat on multiple fronts and extending its strategic influence far beyond its own borders.

Hezbollah on the Northern Front

In Lebanon, Hezbollah stands as Iran's most potent proxy. The group is considered the world's most heavily armed non-state actor, possessing an arsenal estimated to include over 150,000 rockets and missiles. This includes precision-guided munitions capable of striking targets deep within Israel. However, Israeli military operations in the preceding 24 months have substantially weakened Hezbollah's capacity to pose an immediate threat. The group's strength has been weakened to such an extent that it refrained from a major response to Israel's strikes on its primary sponsor, Iran, suggesting a recalculation of its strategic position.

The Gaza Equation

In the south, Iran's main proxy has been Hamas in the Palestinian territories. Years of Israeli military operations, culminating in a major campaign, have virtually dismantled Hamas's military and governing structures in the Gaza Strip. This degradation of Hamas removes a significant and immediate threat from Israel's southern border. For Iran, the neutralisation of Hamas represents a major setback in its proxy strategy. It loses a critical partner capable of tying down Israeli forces and creating a constant source of friction, thereby weakening its multi-front strategy against Israel.

Image Credit - NPR

The Houthi Wildcard from Yemen

The Houthis in Yemen, while geographically more distant, have proven to be a resilient and capable Iranian ally. They have shown the capacity to launch sporadic salvos of long-range ballistic missiles toward Israel, with some requiring a range of nearly 2,000 kilometres. Recently, the group withstood a prolonged American-led bombing offensive. Furthermore, they successfully used ground-to-air projectiles to down multiple advanced American Reaper drones. Their persistence shows an ability to create a distant, unpredictable threat, complicating Israel's defensive calculations and forcing a diversion of resources.

Drawing in the West

The conflict carries a significant risk of drawing in Western powers. Tehran possesses the means to attack Western interests throughout the region, often using its network of backed militant groups. Militant factions operating within Iraq have previously aimed at military bases hosting Western personnel. The safety of these forces is a major concern. Roughly 100 British military personnel remain stationed in the Iraqi capital, serving with a more substantial American contingent. This risk is a key reason why Britain's prime minister, Keir Starmer, recently sanctioned the deployment of extra RAF Typhoon aircraft to Cyprus as a precautionary measure.

A Broad International Presence

The Western military footprint extends beyond Iraq. Both America and the United Kingdom maintain a naval presence, including sailors and vessels, at installations in Bahrain, placing them in close proximity to potential Iranian action in the Persian Gulf. As the duration of any direct conflict between Israel and Iran extends, the danger to these Western forces escalates. This creates a volatile situation where a regional conflict could quickly morph into a wider international crisis, forcing Western governments to make difficult decisions about the safety of their deployed personnel and assets.

The Strait of Hormuz Chokepoint

Iran holds a powerful lever of influence through its capacity to obstruct or even seal the Hormuz Strait. This constricted waterway is among the globe's most vital choke points for global energy distribution. While a full closure would also harm Iran's own economy, the threat remains a potent tool of coercion. Tehran could use naval mines, fast attack craft, or anti-ship missiles to interfere with shipping, causing a dramatic spike in oil prices and insurance premiums. Such an action would almost certainly provoke a major international response, led by the US Navy, to reopen the vital shipping lane.

The American Backstop

Despite its military prowess, the continuation of Israel's military campaign still hinges significantly on backing from America. Annually, the nation benefits from billions in American military assistance, governed by a long-term memorandum of understanding. The vast majority of the advanced weapons, from precision bombs for its jets to the interceptors used in its indigenous Iron Dome system, are either supplied directly by or manufactured with significant components of American origin. This reliance means that any major operation requires not just munitions but also the continued political and diplomatic support of Washington.

The Nuclear Question

A primary strategic goal for Israel is to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. This has led to repeated strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, such as the sprawling complex at Natanz. However, air power alone may prove insufficient to accomplish this goal. Iran has hardened its most sensitive sites, most notably the Fordow enrichment facility, which is buried deep inside a mountain. While airstrikes can set back the Iranian nuclear programme by destroying surface buildings and known underground sites, they are unlikely to completely eradicate it, especially against deeply buried and fortified targets.

The Forbidden Weapon

Breaching the Fordow facility would likely necessitate a specialized munition Israel lacks: the GBU-57, also known as the Massive Ordnance Penetrator. This 13,600kg "bunker-busting" bomb is designed to burrow through metres of reinforced concrete before detonating. Crucially, the United States has not supplied this weapon to Israel. Furthermore, deployment of the MOP requires America's B-2 strategic bombers, which Israel also does not operate. This American monopoly on the specific munition capable of demolishing Iran's most fortified nuclear site places a clear limit on Israel's unilateral options.

An Unwinnable War?

Ultimately, the conflict highlights the limitations of modern air campaigns. While air power can inflict significant damage, create chaos, and degrade an enemy's capabilities, it rarely leads to a clear and decisive victory on its own. Historical examples, from the 2011 intervention in Libya to Israel's own prolonged campaign against Hamas within the Gaza Strip, show that military superiority does not always translate into the achievement of ultimate political goals. Aspirations to unseat the Iranian government using only air attacks seem exceedingly unlikely, suggesting that any conflict is likely to culminate in a costly stalemate rather than a decisive end.