India-Taliban Relations Undergo A Reset

The New Great Game: India's Pragmatic Pivot to the Taliban

In a diplomatic manoeuvre that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago, India is recalibrating its relationship with Afghanistan. The recent week-long visit to New Delhi by Amir Khan Muttaqi, the Taliban's acting Foreign Minister, signals a profound shift in regional dynamics, driven by pragmatism and shifting alliances. This engagement, the highest-level interaction since the Taliban's 2021 takeover, underscores a mutual desire to forge a working relationship despite the absence of formal diplomatic recognition. The move reflects a new chapter in a long and complex history, forcing a reset of strategic calculations across South Asia.

An Unimaginable Visit Becomes Reality

The arrival in New Delhi of Amir Khan Muttaqi for an eight-day series of talks is a pivotal event. Having received a provisional waiver from United Nations sanctions to permit his travel, Muttaqi's agenda focused on building partnerships in diplomacy, commerce, and economics with officials from India. This visit is viewed as a major intensification of New Delhi's strategy concerning Afghanistan, moving beyond cautious observation to direct engagement. For the Taliban, securing a dialogue with a regional power like India is a crucial step in its quest for international legitimacy and economic support for a nation teetering on the edge of collapse. The trip itself signifies a shared willingness to overlook past animosities for future interests.

Image Credit - by Ministry of External Affairs, GODL-India, via Wikimedia Commons

A Diplomatic Thaw in Delhi

The most tangible outcome of the talks was India's announcement to upgrade its diplomatic footing in Kabul. S. Jaishankar, India's Foreign Minister, confirmed that the "technical mission," established in June 2022 to oversee humanitarian support, will be restored to the full status of an embassy. This decision reopens the diplomatic post that was shuttered four years prior when the Taliban regained control. Jaishankar affirmed India's complete dedication to Afghanistan's sovereignty and independence. In response, Muttaqi described India as a "close friend," expressing hope that his presence would strengthen the bond between the two nations.

The Pakistan Factor: A Widening Rift

This burgeoning India-Taliban relationship unfolds against the backdrop of a dramatic souring in the relationship between the Taliban and its historical sponsor, Pakistan. Islamabad has long accused the Afghan leadership of sheltering the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a group responsible for a surge in terrorist attacks within Pakistan. This has led to Pakistani airstrikes on Afghan territory and the forced repatriation of over a million undocumented Afghan nationals. The frayed relationship provides the Taliban with a strong incentive to diversify its foreign policy and reduce its dependence on Islamabad, creating a strategic opening for India.

Islamabad's Diminishing Influence

The Taliban's outreach to New Delhi is a clear signal of its intent to carve out an independent foreign policy. Analysts note that this move allows the group to diversify its alliances and demonstrate that its survival does not rely on Pakistan's support. For years, the Indian security establishment viewed the Taliban as a tool of Pakistan. The current dynamic, however, has upended that assumption. This development is a considerable blow to Pakistan’s standing, which now finds its influence in Kabul waning as its former allies actively court its arch-rival. The diplomatic pivot threatens to isolate Islamabad within the region.

A Pragmatic Partnership Emerges

The increasing interaction between the right-wing Hindu nationalist government of India and the Islamist Taliban is a clear example of realpolitik. When the Taliban captured Kabul on August 15, 2021, India evacuated its diplomats and cancelled thousands of visas for Afghans amid security concerns. However, in less than twelve months, it re-established a presence by dispatching a technical team. This gradual, step-by-step approach allowed both parties to build trust. This new engagement is not based on shared ideology but on a convergence of strategic interests, primarily focused on regional stability, counter-terrorism, and economic connectivity.

India's Security Concerns at the Forefront

New Delhi's primary motivation for engaging with the authorities in Kabul is security. India remains deeply concerned about the potential for Afghan soil to be utilized for actions by terrorist groups like ISIS-Khorasan, al-Qaeda, and anti-India outfits such as Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad. During his visit, Muttaqi reiterated the Taliban's assurance that it would not allow its territory to serve as a base for terrorist activities against India. For India, a direct line of communication with the leadership in Kabul is essential to monitor these threats and ensure its security interests are protected in a volatile region.

The Specter of ISIS and Al-Qaeda

Despite the Taliban's assurances, the presence of various terrorist groups in Afghanistan remains a significant threat. A recent United Nations report highlighted that Afghanistan provides a "permissive environment" for al-Qaeda to consolidate, with training camps and safe houses scattered across the country. Furthermore, the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) continues to operate and launch attacks, posing a risk to both regional and international security. India must navigate this complex security landscape, balancing the Taliban's promises with the reality on the ground.

Economic Interests and Regional Connectivity

Beyond security, India has significant economic interests in a stable Afghanistan. The country is vital for India's ambitions to enhance trade and connectivity with Central Asia, bypassing Pakistan. The Chabahar Port in Iran, developed with Indian investment, is a cornerstone of this strategy. It provides a crucial trade route to Afghanistan and beyond. During the talks, Muttaqi expressed support for trade through Chabahar, and both sides discussed reviving the air freight corridor that was active before 2021. Muttaqi also invited Indian companies to explore opportunities in Afghanistan's mining sector.

The Strategic Importance of Chabahar Port

The Chabahar Port is central to India's geopolitical strategy. Located on the Gulf of Oman, it offers direct access to the Indian Ocean and serves as a gateway to landlocked Afghanistan and the resource-rich nations of Central Asia. By developing this route, India not only diversifies its trade corridors but also counters the growing influence of China's Belt and Road Initiative, particularly the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the Gwadar Port in Pakistan. The port facilitates the transport of humanitarian support, like wheat shipments from India to Afghanistan, and holds the potential to significantly reduce shipping times and costs to Eurasia.

China's Cautious Footprint in Kabul

While the Taliban has called China its "most important partner," Beijing's economic engagement has been more cautious than its rhetoric suggests. China's primary interests in Afghanistan are security—preventing the spillover of extremism into its Xinjiang region—and access to the country's vast mineral resources, including lithium. Although Chinese companies have signed some contracts, such as an oil extraction deal in the Amu Darya basin, overall investment has remained flat. Beijing's approach appears to be one of strategic engagement to secure its interests without making large-scale financial commitments until the security situation stabilizes.

Russia's Recognition and Regional Dynamics

Russia stands as the sole nation to have fully recognised the administration in Kabul, a move that solidifies its influence in the area. The Moscow Format of Consultations on Afghanistan, which includes India, China, Pakistan, and Iran, has become a key platform for regional powers to coordinate their policies. At a recent meeting, participants called for coordinated efforts to combat terrorism and reaffirmed their opposition to the establishment of foreign military bases in Afghanistan. This regional consensus underscores a collective desire to manage the security landscape without external interference, particularly from the West.

The Humanitarian Imperative

India has consistently distinguished its engagement with the Taliban leadership from its dedication to the Afghan people. Since the 2021 takeover, India has provided significant aid, including shipments of wheat, medicines, and Covid-19 vaccines. During Muttaqi's visit, Jaishankar announced further assistance, including 20 ambulances, MRI and CT scan machines for hospitals, in addition to support for new development projects. This aid not only addresses a desperate need in one of the world's most impoverished countries but also helps India maintain goodwill and soft power.

Image Credit - by AhmadElhan, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

A History of Indian Development Aid

Prior to the Taliban's return, India was a major development partner for Afghanistan, investing over $3 billion in hundreds of projects across the country. These projects included critical infrastructure like the Salma Dam and the Afghan Parliament building, as well as schools and health clinics. This long-term investment created a deep reservoir of goodwill among the Afghan population. In the recent talks, discussions included the possibility of completing stalled projects and maintaining existing ones, signaling a potential revival of India's development role under the new administration.

The Unresolved Question of Recognition

Despite the deepening engagement, India has yet to give formal acknowledgment to the administration in Kabul, aligning with the broader international community. The path to recognition is contingent on the Taliban making progress on several key issues, including forming an inclusive government, upholding human rights, especially for women and girls, and taking decisive action against terrorism. While the recent diplomatic moves signify a de facto working relationship, formal endorsement remains a distant prospect.

A Path Fraught with Caution

The relationship between New Delhi and the Taliban remains tactical and guarded. Both parties are navigating a complex landscape shaped by historical mistrust, various domestic factors, and potential international repercussions. India's policy is a delicate balancing act: engaging with the de facto leadership to protect its strategic interests while upholding its long-standing principles on democracy and human rights. For the Taliban, securing India's partnership is a significant diplomatic prize, but it must demonstrate a genuine commitment to regional security to sustain the momentum.

The Itinerary: More Than Just Politics

Muttaqi’s visit extended beyond the formal confines of New Delhi. He travelled to Saharanpur to visit the influential Darul Uloom Deoband Islamic seminary, an institution with deep ideological and historical ties to the Taliban movement. This part of the trip was aimed at reconnecting with the religious roots that heavily influenced the Taliban's ideology. The Afghan minister was also scheduled to meet with figures from the Indian business world and visit the Taj Mahal in Agra, although the Agra visit was later cancelled. These engagements highlight an effort to build broader cultural and economic connections.

Looking Ahead: A New Regional Equation

The visit by Amir Khan Muttaqi has undeniably reset the rules of engagement in South Asia. It marks a bold, pragmatic shift in Indian foreign policy, one that acknowledges the reality of Taliban rule and seeks to shape it in a direction favourable to India's interests. The growing rift between Kabul and Islamabad has created a diplomatic vacuum that New Delhi is cautiously stepping into. The future of this relationship will depend on the Taliban's actions and its ability to manage the immense challenges facing Afghanistan. For now, a new, albeit uneasy, chapter in regional geopolitics has begun.