Tehran Faces Evacuation Amid Water Crisis

The Empty Dams: Tehran on the Brink of an Unprecedented Water Crisis

A severe and historic drought is currently gripping Iran. The nation's capital, Tehran, is experiencing a particularly acute water shortage. This autumn has brought almost no precipitation, causing reservoirs to shrink to dangerously low levels. In response, government figures are making urgent appeals for residents to diminish their water consumption as the emergency escalates. The emergency is not a sudden event but the culmination of years of environmental strain and what many critics call mismanagement. The sprawling metropolis of nearly 15 million people now confronts a reality where the provision of water could become insufficient to meet its fundamental needs.

A President's Stark Warning

Masoud Pezeshkian, the nation's president, has delivered a stark caution. He suggests that unless significant rainfall arrives shortly, the authorities will need to implement water rationing across Tehran. The president further elaborated that even these restrictive measures could fall short of heading off a major catastrophe. Pezeshkian even raised the grim prospect that a complete evacuation of Tehran could become necessary if rationing proves ineffective. These statements underscore the gravity of the situation, a potential crisis that could displace millions and bring the nation's economic and political heart to a standstill. His words paint a picture of a capital city teetering on the edge of a precipice.

Backlash and Disbelief

These remarks have generated considerable negative reaction within Iran's press and across social media platforms. Gholamhossein Karbaschi, who formerly served as Tehran's mayor, labelled the suggestion a complete farce. He expressed that the idea of emptying the capital city is utterly devoid of logic. Karbaschi's comments reflect a sentiment of disbelief and frustration among many Iranians, who see the government's warnings as a failure to address the root causes of the crisis. Critics argue that years of poor planning and unsustainable water policies have led to this point, and the suggestion of evacuation is an admission of that failure.

No Rain in the Forecast

Meteorological officials in Iran project no relief in the immediate future. They forecast a continued absence of rain for the upcoming 10 days. This bleak outlook intensifies the sense of urgency. The effects of the water scarcity are already making an impact on the everyday routines of people living throughout the city. Taps have begun to run dry in various neighbourhoods, forcing residents to seek alternative sources. The lack of rain is not just an inconvenience; it represents a direct threat to public health, sanitation, and the basic functioning of a major global city.

A City on Rations

The daily struggle for water is becoming a common experience for Tehran's inhabitants. One Tehran resident informed BBC Persian about her intentions to acquire water storage tanks for flushing toilets and handling other essential needs. Earlier during the summer months, Vafa Ahmadpoor, an Iranian rapper, uploaded a video clip to his social media that depicted a kitchen faucet with no flow. He noted the water had been off for several hours and mentioned he had to resort to purchasing bottled water merely for basic sanitation. These individual stories highlight the widespread impact of the water shortage, turning a basic necessity into a daily challenge.

Critically Low Reservoirs

The dams that supply the city are critically low. The person in charge of the Latian Dam, a principal water source for Tehran, reports that its current volume is under ten percent of its full potential. The Karaj Dam, situated close by, which serves both the Alborz and Tehran provinces, faces a comparable predicament. An elderly person from the area communicated to state-run media in Iran that in his entire lifetime, he had never witnessed the dam so depleted. These firsthand accounts from officials and residents alike confirm the shocking decline in the region's water reserves.

Staggering Decline in Precipitation

According to Mohammad-Ali Moallem, who oversees the Karaj Dam, the drop in precipitation has been staggering. He stated they experienced a 92 percent reduction in rainfall when compared to the previous year. He added that the reservoir contains only eight percent of its potential volume. A large portion of that is unusable sediment-filled water, often termed "dead water." This dramatic decrease in rainfall, a primary driver of the crisis, is part of a larger pattern of changing climate conditions that are severely affecting the region and leaving crucial water systems on the verge of collapse.

The Threat of Nightly Water Cuts

With forecasts offering little hope, the administration is now relying on late-autumn precipitation. A warning has come from Abbas Ali Abadi, who is Iran's energy minister, that the circumstances may soon compel officials to start interrupting water services. He indicated they might need to completely halt the water delivery to zero during some nights. Additionally, authorities have revealed strategies to impose penalties on households and commercial enterprises that use excessive water volumes. These drastic measures signal a new phase in the crisis, moving from appeals for conservation to enforced restrictions that will affect every resident.

A Multifaceted Problem

Tehran's water difficulties are not solely caused by inadequate precipitation, according to the energy minister, Ali Abadi. He attributed some of the issue to significant water leakage from the city's century-old piping infrastructure. The minister also referenced the recent conflict with Israel, which lasted 12 days. Throughout that period of hostilities, an Israeli strike on June 15 targeted the Tajrish neighbourhood in Tehran's north. Following the attack, videos surfaced showing substantial flooding throughout that vicinity. This points to a complex web of contributing factors, from climate change to aging infrastructure and regional conflict.

A Worsening National Crisis

However, the problem extends well beyond the capital's boundaries. A caution has been issued by Ahmad Vazifeh, who leads Iran's National Centre for Climate and Drought Crisis Management, that numerous other provinces are also in a difficult position. He mentioned that dams in places like Markazi, West Azerbaijan, and East Azerbaijan are in a concerning situation, possessing water holdings in the low single digits. This nationwide perspective reveals that Tehran's struggle is a symptom of a much larger environmental and resource management challenge facing the entire country, threatening both urban and rural populations.

Alarms Sound in Mashhad

In Mashhad, the second most populous city in Iran, leaders are also raising alarms. In the country's north-east, the governor for the Khorasan Razavi Province described the water levels in the dams supplying Mashhad as having declined below the eight percent threshold. He cautioned that the province confronts an enormous drought challenge. The situation in Mashhad, a major religious and population centre, demonstrates the widespread nature of the water scarcity. The city's plight highlights the vulnerability of even Iran's most significant urban areas to the devastating effects of prolonged drought and depleted water resources.

Dams Below Three Percent Capacity

Hossein Esmaeilian, the CEO of the Water and Wastewater Company in Mashhad, presented an even starker number. He reported that the primary dam serving the city has dropped to a level under three percent. He detailed that just three percent of the collective volume of the four dams that supply Mashhad—Kardeh, Torogh, Ardak, and Doosti—is left. Of these, all but the Doosti Dam are currently non-operational. Such critically low levels are unprecedented and indicate that the city is on the verge of a severe water emergency, potentially disrupting the lives of millions.

A Predicament Many Years in Development

The issues with water scarcity in Iran represent a predicament that has developed over many decades. Frequent acknowledgment of this growing danger has come from Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He addressed the subject of diminishing water supplies during his Nowruz speeches beginning in 2011 and on subsequent occasions. Despite this high-level acknowledgment, substantial change has not occurred. Critics point to an absence of sustained and effective policy implementation, allowing unsustainable practices in agriculture and industry to continue depleting vital water sources, leading to the current dire situation.

The Real Possibility of Dry Taps

Today, Tehran, Mashhad, and Karaj, with a combined population of over 16 million, are confronting the distinct likelihood that their faucets could go completely dry. This is no longer a distant threat but an imminent possibility. The social and economic consequences of such an event would be catastrophic. The potential for social unrest is high as citizens grapple with the failure of authorities to secure the most basic of resources. The government faces a monumental task in managing both the immediate crisis and the long-term challenges of water security in an increasingly arid climate.

Climate Change as a Driving Force

Scientific studies increasingly link the severity of Iran's droughts to global climate change. Research indicates that western Iran, in particular, is experiencing an increasing trend in drought severity. Projections show that what were once considered 20-year drought events may now occur every 10 years. Rising temperatures and a projected 35% decrease in precipitation in the coming decades are expected to intensify the situation. This climatic shift is a fundamental driver of the crisis, altering weather patterns and decimating the snowpacks and river flows that have traditionally supplied the nation's water.

The Human Cost of Scarcity

The escalating water emergency is having a profound social impact. In Tehran, officials have confirmed nighttime pressure reductions as part of demand management, advising households to install storage tanks and booster pumps. However, the cost of this equipment is beyond the reach of many Iranians. This disparity creates a social divide, where wealthier residents can better insulate themselves from the crisis while the less affluent bear the brunt of the shortages. The situation is not just an environmental issue but also a growing social and economic one, exacerbating existing inequalities within Iranian society.

A Nation on the Move

One of the most significant consequences of the water emergency in Iran is the large-scale migration from rural to urban areas. Agricultural communities, especially in arid provinces, have been devastated by the lack of irrigation water, forcing many farmers to abandon their land. This internal migration places immense strain on cities like Tehran and Mashhad, which are already struggling to provide basic services for their existing populations. The influx of people searching for better opportunities further intensifies the pressure on urban infrastructure, housing, and, crucially, water supplies, creating a vicious cycle of scarcity and social stress.

Mismanagement and Missed Opportunities

While climate change is a significant factor, many experts and ordinary Iranians place the blame for the crisis squarely on decades of mismanagement. A focus on dam construction and the over-extraction of groundwater, rather than investing in modernising aging infrastructure and promoting water-efficient agriculture, has proven disastrous. Critics in Iranian media have identified the politicisation of environmental decision-making and the appointment of unqualified managers as key contributors to the problem. The failure to implement long-term, sustainable water management strategies has left the country exceptionally vulnerable.

The Compounding Factor of Conflict

The nation's energy minister has also pointed to external pressures, including the recent conflict with Israel, as a contributing factor to Tehran's water woes. An Israeli airstrike in June on Tajrish, a neighbourhood in Tehran's north, reportedly caused heavy flooding, damaging already fragile and antiquated water infrastructure. While the full extent of the damage is debated, it highlights how regional instability can intersect with and worsen domestic crises. The targeting of infrastructure, whether intentionally or not, can have cascading effects on a civilian population already under severe strain from environmental challenges.

An Ecological Emergency with No Easy Answers

Analysts warn that Iran is facing a nationwide ecological emergency that threatens public welfare and state stability. Groundwater depletion now exceeds natural replenishment in most provinces, and major river systems have been reduced to seasonal streams. Hydrologists describe the situation as approaching a point of irreversible water stress. The government's reliance on short-term measures like public appeals and pressure reductions, instead of deep structural reforms, has proven insufficient. The crisis demands a fundamental rethinking of how the nation manages its most precious resource, a task complicated by economic sanctions and political pressures.

A Future Written in Dust

As the dust settles over the parched riverbeds and depleted reservoirs, the future of Iran's major cities hangs in the balance. The immediate challenge is to navigate the coming months, hoping for rain that forecasts say will not come, while implementing emergency measures that may prove too little, too late. The long-term challenge is far more daunting. It involves a complete overhaul of the nation's approach to water, agriculture, and urban development in the face of a rapidly changing climate. For the millions living in Tehran and other affected cities, the crisis is no longer a matter of policy debates but a question of survival.