Madagascar President Flees Protests

Madagascar on the Brink: President in Hiding as Military Power Play Grips Nation

Andry Rajoelina, the besieged president of Madagascar, has revealed he is taking refuge in a protected location following a plot against him. This development came after extended weeks of public demonstrations that called for his resignation. The 51-year-old leader, addressing the country live, declared that a coalition of political figures and members of the military had devised a plan to end his life. His current whereabouts remain confidential, though earlier unofficial accounts speculated he had escaped the nation using a French armed forces plane. This dramatic turn marks a critical escalation in a crisis that has seen a youth-led movement challenge his government's foundations and a powerful military unit openly defy his authority, leaving the island state in profound uncertainty.

The President's Secret Address

In his first public remarks since vanishing from view, President Rajoelina communicated to the populace via a Facebook livestream. The broadcast experienced multiple postponements amid the unfolding chaos, as mutinous armed troops made gestures to take over the national television station's headquarters. Rajoelina informed the Malagasy people that, beginning on September 25, he had been the subject of assassination schemes and efforts to overthrow the government. He contended that this threat from a cabal of military and political figures compelled him to seek shelter to preserve his own life. He finished his address by insisting the sole path to resolving the crisis involves abiding by the nation's prevailing constitutional laws, a statement rejecting the legitimacy of the forces against him.

Genesis of the Unrest

The widespread unrest that has paralysed Madagascar did not originate as a political revolution. It began in late September with localised demonstrations against the chronic failure of essential public services. Citizens, especially in Antananarivo, the capital city, took to the streets to voice their anger over persistent and lengthy electrical outages and water shortages. The state-run utility company, Jirama, has long been accused of corruption and mismanagement, making daily existence a struggle for millions. These initial protests, rooted in everyday frustrations, quickly tapped into a deeper well of public discontent, evolving into a countrywide movement against the government's perceived failures on a much broader scale.

The Rise of 'Gen Z Mada'

The protests rapidly transformed into a formidable challenge to the state, spearheaded by a youth-led movement that identifies as "Gen Z Mada." Organised primarily through social media platforms like TikTok and Facebook, these young activists mobilised thousands, channelling widespread frustration into a coherent call for political change. Their grievances extended far beyond utility shortages. They demanded an end to systemic corruption, solutions for high unemployment, and relief from the crushing cost-of-living crisis. This digitally savvy generation proved adept at coordinating rallies and sustaining momentum, rejecting the government's attempts at appeasement and insisting on the president's resignation as their central demand.

A Government in Disarray

Faced with escalating protests, President Rajoelina's administration made several concessions in an attempt to pacify the demonstrators. In a drastic move, he dismissed his whole cabinet, including the prime minister, and promised reforms. However, these gestures proved to be insufficient and came too late. The "Gen Z Mada" movement and its supporters saw the cabinet reshuffle as a superficial tactic that failed to address the root causes of their anger. The protests continued to swell in size and intensity, demonstrating that the government had fundamentally underestimated the depth of public dissatisfaction and had lost control of the political narrative.

The Military Enters the Fray

The crisis reached a pivotal turning point when CAPSAT, an elite and influential military faction, openly broke with the president. This was the identical unit that had been instrumental in helping Rajoelina seize power in a 2009 coup. In a stunning announcement, CAPSAT declared it was refusing to follow government orders and urged the rest of the nation's military to join the protest movement. Its commanders stated they would not fire on civilians, whom they described as their brothers and sisters. Subsequently, soldiers from the unit were seen escorting youth protesters and even joining them in the streets of the capital city, signalling a fatal erosion of the president's authority.

A New Army Chief Emerges

With its declaration, the CAPSAT unit effectively seized control of all military branches. It moved swiftly to consolidate its new power by appointing a fresh head of the Malagasy Armed Forces, General Demosthene Pikulas. In a remarkable sign of the shifting loyalties, the country's civilian armed forces minister attended the installation ceremony and publicly gave his blessing to the new appointee. General Pikulas gave assurances to the population that the nation's security services were collaborating to restore calm and preserve order. His appointment represented a formalisation of the military's break with the president, placing the armed forces under new leadership sympathetic to the protesters.

The Opposition's Political Manoeuvre

As the president's authority crumbled, Madagascar's political opposition began to act. TIM, the country's most prominent opposition group, announced its intention to initiate a process for his removal from office. A senior party leader, speaking without being named, stated that the military group was now effectively governing the nation. The official grounds for the impeachment were his desertion of his duties, a direct reference to the president's disappearance from public life and his subsequent admission that he was in hiding. This move by the opposition sought to provide a constitutional framework for Rajoelina's removal, leveraging the military's power shift to achieve a political outcome.

International Murmurs of Concern

The escalating crisis in Madagascar has drawn worried responses from international powers. Emmanuel Macron, the French President, declined to verify whether a French military plane had evacuated Rajoelina but stressed the need to preserve "constitutional order." Speaking in Egypt, Macron acknowledged the legitimacy of the youth's desire for a better life but warned against the movement being co-opted by army groups or influenced from outside. Similarly, the African Union's security council voiced deep concern, reaffirming the organisation's firm rejection of any non-constitutional transfer of power. These statements reflect a global anxiety over the potential for a full-blown military takeover and further instability.

Image  Credit - by © European Union, 2025, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

The Flight of the President's Circle

The political turmoil has prompted several key figures from Andry Rajoelina's immediate circle to escape the country. Reports indicate that Christian Ntsay, the former prime minister, and the prominent businessman Maminiaina Ravatomanga have sought refuge in the nearby island nation of Mauritius. Ravatomanga, in particular, has long been a close adviser to the president and a subject of corruption allegations, making his departure significant. The exodus of these high-profile loyalists underscores the severity of the crisis and suggests that those closest to the president believed his hold on power was irrevocably broken.

A Nation of Rich Resources, Grinding Poverty

Madagascar's political instability is set against a backdrop of profound economic hardship. Despite possessing rich natural wealth, including vanilla, precious gems, and minerals vital for the energy transition like nickel and cobalt, it remains among the planet's most impoverished nations. According to the World Bank, about 75% of the population subsists beneath the poverty threshold. Statistics from the International Monetary Fund reveal that just over a third of inhabitants are connected to the power grid. This stark paradox fuels deep-seated resentment, as ordinary citizens see little benefit from the nation's wealth, which they believe is squandered through corruption and mismanagement.

The Human Cost of Protest

The initial period of the demonstrations was marked by violence. According to figures released by the United Nations, a minimum of 22 individuals were killed and over 100 were injured during clashes. Eyewitnesses reported that security forces, including the gendarmerie, used live ammunition against protesters. The administration disputes the UN's casualty figures, claiming the deceased were looters and vandals. In a particularly tragic incident, an infant perished from inhaling smoke after exposure to tear gas used to disperse crowds. These events galvanised public anger and hardened the resolve of the demonstrators against the government's heavy-handed response.

A History of Political Volatility

The current crisis is the latest chapter in Madagascar's long history of political turbulence. Since achieving freedom from France in 1960, the island has experienced numerous political upheavals, coups, and disputed elections. The events of 2009 are particularly resonant, as they share striking similarities with the present situation. During that crisis, Andry Rajoelina, then the young mayor of Antananarivo, led mass protests that, with military backing, compelled the departure of Marc Ravalomanana, the president at the time. This history of unconstitutional power transfers has created a legacy of fragility in the country's political institutions, setting a precedent for extra-legal challenges to authority.

The Rise of the DJ President

Prior to his political career, Andry Rajoelina made his name as a charismatic business owner and disc jockey. Born into a wealthy family, he built a successful business empire that included an event production company, a digital printing firm, and, crucially, the Viva radio and television networks. His media outlets became a platform for his political ambitions. Harnessing his youthful appeal and populist rhetoric, he was elected mayor of Antananarivo in 2007. At just 34, he rose to become the continent's most youthful head of state after taking power in 2009. He governed for a term lasting four years before returning to the presidency following the election in 2018.

From Populist Hopeful to Besieged Leader

President Rajoelina's well-dressed, youthful charm, which initially resonated with many young Malagasies, gradually diminished over his years in power. His administrations became dogged by persistent and unshakeable claims of nepotism and systemic corruption. Critics accused him of favouring a close circle of business allies and failing to deliver on his promises to improve living standards for the masses. The initial optimism that accompanied his rise gave way to widespread disillusionment, as the systemic problems of poverty and poor governance remained unsolved. This erosion of public trust laid the groundwork for the massive uprising against his rule.

Jirama: The Failing Heart of the Nation

Central to the demonstrations is the systemic failure of Jirama, the state-owned water and electricity company. For years, the utility has been plagued by deep-seated problems, including ageing infrastructure, a lack of investment, and rampant corruption. This results in daily, hours-long power cuts and unreliable water supplies that paralyse businesses and make normal life impossible for citizens. Despite exorbitant bills, the service is erratic, forcing many to rely on purchasing water from vendors. The government's inability to reform Jirama has become a potent symbol of its broader failure to provide basic necessities and manage the country's resources effectively.

Madagascar's Strategic Significance

Beyond its internal struggles, Madagascar holds considerable geopolitical importance within the Indian Ocean region. Its strategic location along key maritime trade routes and its unique biodiversity make it a country of interest to global powers. The island is also rich in sought-after minerals, attracting foreign investment in the mining sector. This international interest can be a double-edged sword, providing opportunities for economic development but also creating vulnerabilities to external influence and the exploitation of its natural resources. The ongoing political instability threatens to disrupt these relationships and could deter the foreign investment needed for economic growth.

The Volatile World of Malagasy Vanilla

Madagascar is the world's leading producer of vanilla, an industry that is a critical source of foreign income but also a driver of economic instability. The global price of vanilla is notoriously volatile, leading to boom-and-bust cycles that have a profound impact on the livelihoods of tens of thousands of small-scale farmers. The sector is also reportedly rife with corruption and dominated by a few powerful players, fuelling resentment among those who feel excluded from its profits. Public anger over the management of this key export industry contributes to the broader narrative of an economy that benefits a select few at the expense of the many.

Antananarivo: A Capital on Edge

In the capital city, the atmosphere remains tense and unpredictable. The streets, which for weeks were the scene of mass protests, are now patrolled by soldiers as the military asserts its control. While the youth movement has celebrated the military's intervention, a sense of uncertainty hangs over the city's residents. It is unclear what the military's long-term intentions are and whether their seizure of power will lead to a stable transition or another prolonged period of political crisis. For now, the capital waits, caught between the hope for meaningful change and the fear of further turmoil.

An Uncertain Path Forward

With the president in hiding and the military in command, Madagascar's future is delicately poised. Several outcomes are possible. The military, led by Colonel Michael Randrianirina and General Pikulas, could establish a transitional government with the aim of organising new elections, as they have publicly stated. Alternatively, they could consolidate their power, leading to an extended period of military rule. The opposition will likely push for a swift return to civilian leadership through constitutional processes. The international community, meanwhile, will exert pressure to avoid a permanent coup. The ultimate path will depend on the complex negotiations between the military, political factions, and the vibrant youth movement that started it all.