Madagascar Protest Demands Change

Madagascar on the Brink: Youth Uprising Challenges President's Rule

Security forces have deployed non-lethal projectiles and tear gas against demonstrators in Madagascar, escalating a tense standoff between the government and a youth-led protest movement. For weeks, this island nation has been convulsed by demonstrations demanding the resignation of President Andry Rajoelina. The unrest, initially fueled by public frustration with utility shortages, has now spiralled into a significant political crisis, culminating in the president fleeing the country and an elite military unit siding with the protesters.

The government's heavy-handed response has drawn condemnation, while the determined protesters, identifying as Gen Z Mada, have rejected all of the president's attempts at conciliation. What began as localised frustration has now ignited a nationwide movement, exposing deep-seated grievances over corruption, poverty, and a persistent cost-of-living crisis. With the military now fractured and the president in hiding, the nation's future hangs precariously in the balance.

The Spark of Discontent

The initial protests, which first erupted on September 25, were a direct response to the ongoing shortages of water and electricity that plague daily life for many Malagasy citizens. Frustration over the government's inability to provide basic services boiled over in Antananarivo, the capital, and quickly spread to other major cities. This specific grievance, however, was merely the catalyst for a much broader expression of public anger. The demonstrations evolved to encompass widespread dissatisfaction with endemic corruption, soaring unemployment rates, and the crushing cost-of-living crisis that affects a vast portion of the population.

A Generation's Ultimatum

The movement, organised by a collective calling itself Gen Z Mada, swiftly became the most significant challenge to President Rajoelina's authority in years. Utilising social media to coordinate their actions, these young, tech-savvy activists mirror similar youth-led anti-government movements seen in other parts of the world. Their demands were clear and uncompromising: the president must resign. The group issued a two-day deadline for his departure, threatening a countrywide work stoppage if their call was not heeded. They firmly rejected Rajoelina's offers of dialogue, stating that dialogue was impossible with an administration they accuse of violent repression while they advocate for fundamental human rights.

The Government's Hardline Response

The state's reaction to the initially peaceful protests was swift and severe. Security forces, including police and gendarmerie, were deployed in large numbers, using chemical irritants, rubber projectiles, and stun grenades to disperse crowds. News agencies reported that armoured vehicles were used to charge at demonstrators, and numerous arrests were made. The United Nations has stated that a minimum of 22 fatalities occurred and more than 100 people were injured in the first few furious days of the demonstrations. The victims included not only protesters but also bystanders caught in the crossfire, as well as others who died in the ensuing violence and looting carried out by criminal elements.

A President's Concessions Rejected

Facing mounting pressure, President Rajoelina attempted a series of manoeuvres to placate the protesters and regain control. He initially dismissed his whole cabinet, including the prime minister, Christian Ntsay. This was a significant move, but it failed to satisfy the demonstrators, who saw it as a cosmetic gesture. The president then selected an army general, Ruphin Fortunat Zafisambo, as the new prime minister, a decision viewed by the protest movement as an attempt to clamp down on them rather than a genuine effort at reform. This decision was spurned by the demonstration organizers, who reiterated their demand for Rajoelina’s resignation.

The Dialogue That Never Was

In another attempt to quell the unrest, Rajoelina invited various groups, including student representatives and spiritual leaders, to a town-hall-style meeting at the presidential palace. The Gen Z Mada collective, however, refused to attend, citing their unwillingness to sit down with the same government actively suppressing them. During this meeting with his supporters, the president pledged to vacate his position in twelve months if he failed to resolve the country's persistent power cuts, promising new energy projects to bolster the country's power supply. He also claimed a desire for factual information from the people, acknowledging that those who had reassured him that circumstances were proceeding smoothly were responsible for the current situation.

A Fractured Military

The crisis reached a pivotal point when an elite military unit, the CAPSAT, declared its support for the demonstrators. This was a dramatic turn of events, as the same unit had been instrumental in Rajoelina’s own rise to power during a military-backed coup in 2009. The soldiers joined thousands of protesters in the capital's main square, a symbolic act of defiance that sent shockwaves through the government. The CAPSAT leader urged other military units to refuse orders to shoot at civilians, deepening the divisions within the armed forces and raising the spectre of a full-blown mutiny.

A President in Exile

With his authority crumbling and the military no longer unified in its support, President Rajoelina fled the country. In a speech broadcast on social media from an undisclosed location, he stated that he was forced to find a safe place to protect his life, alleging there had been an illegal attempt to seize power. While he called for dialogue to resolve the situation and respect for the constitution, he did not announce his resignation. Reports suggested he had been flown out of Madagascar on a French military aircraft, though this remains unconfirmed. His departure left a power vacuum and plunged the nation into even greater uncertainty.

The Irony of History

The current uprising against Andry Rajoelina is laden with historical irony. In 2009, Rajoelina, then the young mayor of Antananarivo, spearheaded large-scale demonstrations that, with the backing of the military, overthrew the democratically elected president, Marc Ravalomanana. The political crisis at that time was also fuelled by popular resentment towards an increasingly authoritarian leader and perceptions of elite corruption. Now, Rajoelina finds himself the target of a similar youth-led movement, facing accusations of the very same failings he once campaigned against. The very military unit that helped him seize power has now sided with those demanding his removal.

A Nation's Economic Woes

Underpinning the political turmoil is a foundation of severe economic hardship. Madagascar, despite its rich biodiversity and significant mineral wealth, remains one of the poorest countries in the world. According to the World Bank, approximately 80% of the population lives in poverty. The nation's income per capita has fallen dramatically since independence in 1960. Unfulfilled promises to generate prosperity from its prized commodities, such as vanilla, nickel, and sapphires, have been a major theme of the protests. The daily struggle for survival, exacerbated by failing public services, has created a fertile ground for dissent.

The Gen Z Movement's Demands

Beyond the central demand for the president's resignation, the Gen Z Mada movement has articulated a broader vision for change. Their charter includes calls for the dissolution of the country's parliament and the election commission. They have also demanded a public apology from the head of state for the violence inflicted upon demonstrators. The movement insists on a fundamental overhaul of the political system, seeking justice and accountability. They have explicitly stated that they are not seeking a coup but rather a democratic national dialogue and universal access to essential services.

A State of Uncertainty

In Antananarivo, the capital city, daily existence for most residents has not been disrupted, but a significant law enforcement presence remains in certain neighbourhoods, with some roads blocked or closely monitored. Nighttime curfews have been enforced in the capital and other major cities to quell the unrest. The intensity of on-the-ground demonstrations seems to be diminishing since the president's departure, but the underlying tensions have not disappeared. The situation remains highly volatile and unpredictable, with civil society organisations voicing alarm about a "military drift" in the country's governance.

International Reaction and Concern

The unfolding crisis has drawn attention from the international community. The United Nations has been vocal in its condemnation of the violence, with Secretary-General António Guterres expressing deep sadness over the loss of life and calling on authorities to respect international human rights law. The UN human rights chief, Volker Türk, expressed shock at the violent response from security forces. Amnesty International has called for thorough investigations into the killings and for the immediate release of those arrested solely for protesting. Regional bodies like the Southern African Development Community (SADC) have also expressed grave concern, urging restraint and constructive dialogue.

The Path Forward

With President Rajoelina in exile and the military divided, Madagascar stands at a critical juncture. The youth-led protest movement has successfully challenged the established order but now faces the difficult task of translating its momentum into tangible political change. The protest leaders have pledged to stand firm, encouraging citizens from every part of the country to unite with them. However, the path forward is fraught with peril. The risk of further instability, military infighting, or the hijacking of the popular movement by established political figures remains high.

A Test for Democracy

The ultimate outcome of this crisis will be a significant test for the future of democracy in Madagascar. The nation has a long history of political instability and popular uprisings since gaining independence from France in 1960. The Gen Z Mada movement has demonstrated the power of a mobilised and determined citizenry, particularly the youth, in holding power to account. The challenge now is to navigate the current power vacuum and establish a process that leads to a stable, inclusive, and responsive government that can finally address the deep-seated grievances of the populace of Madagascar.